29:null 2a:["$","title",null,{"children":"The philosophy of choosing between extending and improving lives (presentation version) | johnwelford | Observable"}] 2f:T590,html``30:T466,slide` If the age of full *psychological connectedness* is ${connectednessAge}, and our life-saving intervention happens at age ${interventionAge}, then the WELLBYs gained are ${(connectedness*100).toFixed(0)}% of the total possible. If our expected level of wellbeing is ${tex`\frac{${exampleWellbeingLevel}}{10}`} then the WELLBYs claimed are ${(exampleWellbeingLevel*connectedness).toFixed(1)} per year, or **${(connectedness*(lifeSpan-interventionAge)*exampleWellbeingLevel).toFixed(1)}** WELLBYs over the expected lifespan. ${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, lifeSpan], {value: 10, step: 1, label: "Life-saving intervention age"}), viewof interventionAge)} ${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, lifeSpan], {value: 20, step: 1, label: "Connectedness age"}), viewof connectednessAge)} ${wellbeingChart(({ baseline: Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(0)), intervention: Array(lifeSpan).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel), interventionValue: Array(lifeSpan).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel * connectedness), }), interventionAge, "Life-saving intervention?", connectednessAge)} `31:T517,slide` ${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, 10], {value: 3, step: 1, label: "Neutral point"}), viewof neutralPoint)} ${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, lifeSpan], {value: 10, step: 1, label: "Life-saving intervention age"}), viewof interventionAge)} ${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, lifeSpan], {value: 20, step: 1, label: "Connectedness age"}), viewof connectednessAge)} ${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, 100], {value: 70, step: 1, label: "Expected lifespan"}), viewof lifeSpan)} ${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, 10], {value: 6, step: 1, label: "Previous/expected wellbeing level"}), viewof exampleWellbeingLevel)} ${wellbeingChart(({ baseline: Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(neutralPoint)), intervention: Array(lifeSpan).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel), interventionValue: Array(lifeSpan).fill(neutralPoint + (exampleWellbeingLevel-neutralPoint) * connectedness), }), interventionAge, "Life-saving intervention?", connectednessAge, neutralPoint)} Under the conditions above, **${(wellbyCountFixed % 1) !== 0 ? wellbyCountFixed.toFixed(1) : wellbyCountFixed}** WELLBYs are gained by the life-saving intervention (the green area ▉, minus the red area ▉). `32:T4c8,slide` ### The effect of progress What if expected wellbeing is not fixed for the remainder of a person's life? (Ailing personal health? Improved standards of living in their area?) ${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([-3, 3], {value: 0.5, step: 0.1, label: "Expected wellbeing change per decade"}), viewof wellbeingLevelTrend)} ${wellbeingChart(({ baseline: Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(neutralPoint)), intervention: Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill().map((_, i) => Math.max(0,Math.min(10,exampleWellbeingLevel + (i/10)*wellbeingLevelTrend)))), interventionValue: Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill().map((_, i) => neutralPoint + (Math.max(0,Math.min(10,(exampleWellbeingLevel + (i/10)*wellbeingLevelTrend)))-neutralPoint) * connectedness)), }), interventionAge, "Life-saving intervention?", connectednessAge, neutralPoint)} With expected wellbeing changing, the estimate is now **${(wellbyCountTriaProgress % 1) !== 0 ? wellbyCountTriaProgress.toFixed(1) : wellbyCountTriaProgress}** WELLBYs gained by the life-saving intervention. `33:T51e,slide` The weighted combination of... ${viewof viewCredenceSplit2} ${viewCredenceSplit2[0].percent}% ${textcolor('Epicureanism', {background: '#9C9691', color: 'black'})} (being dead is not bad for the dead person) : no WELLBYs ${(viewCredenceSplit2[1].percent)}% ${textcolor('TRIA', '#A192D7')} (Time-relative interest account – WELLBYs lost depend on the age at which a person dies) : ${(wellbyCountTriaProgress % 1) !== 0 ? wellbyCountTriaProgress.toFixed(1) : wellbyCountTriaProgress} WELLBYs ${(viewCredenceSplit2[2].percent)}% ${textcolor('Deprivationism', '#E18F3E')} (all potential wellbeing is lost – WELLBYs lost equal to a full life) : ${(wellbyCountDepriProgress % 1) !== 0 ? wellbyCountDepriProgress.toFixed(1) : wellbyCountDepriProgress} WELLBYs ... would give (${viewCredenceSplit2[0].percent/100}×0 + ${viewCredenceSplit2[1].percent/100}×${(wellbyCountTriaProgress % 1) !== 0 ? wellbyCountTriaProgress.toFixed(1) : wellbyCountTriaProgress} + ${viewCredenceSplit2[2].percent/100}×${(wellbyCountDepriProgress % 1) !== 0 ? wellbyCountDepriProgress.toFixed(1) : wellbyCountDepriProgress} = ) **${((wellbyCountTriaProgress*viewCredenceSplit2[1].percent/100)+(wellbyCountDepriProgress*viewCredenceSplit2[2].percent/100)).toFixed(1)}** WELLBYs gained by the life-saving intervention. `34:T268d,function wellbeingChart(data, intervention, interventionTitle, connectednessAge, neutral, { marginTop = 40, // top margin, in pixels marginRight = 30, // right margin, in pixels marginBottom = 50, // bottom margin, in pixels marginLeft = 40, // left margin, in pixels width = 1600, // outer width, in pixels height = 400 // outer height, in pixels } = {}) { // Construct scales and axes. const xScale = d3.scaleLinear([0, data.baseline.length], [marginLeft, width - marginRight]); const yScale = d3.scaleLinear([0, 10], [height - marginBottom, marginTop]); const xAxis = d3.axisBottom(xScale).ticks(width / 80).tickSizeOuter(0); const xGrid = d3.axisBottom(xScale).ticks(data.baseline.length).tickSizeOuter(0); const yAxis = d3.axisLeft(yScale).ticks(10); // extend data by one const baselineData = data.baseline.concat(data.baseline[data.baseline.length-1]); const interventionData = data.intervention.concat(data.intervention[data.intervention.length-1]); // calculate +- WELLBY areas var interventionDifferencePositive = []; var interventionDifferenceNegative = []; if (data.interventionValue !== undefined) { const interventionValueData = data.interventionValue.concat(data.interventionValue[data.interventionValue.length-1]); interventionDifferencePositive = baselineData.map((d,i) => [d, Math.max(d, interventionValueData[i])]); interventionDifferenceNegative = baselineData.map((d,i) => [d, Math.min(d, interventionValueData[i])]); } else { interventionDifferencePositive = baselineData.map((d,i) => [d, Math.max(d, interventionData[i])]); interventionDifferenceNegative = baselineData.map((d,i) => [d, Math.min(d, interventionData[i])]); } const pastLine = d3.line() // line generator .curve(d3.curveStepAfter) .x((d,i) => xScale(i)) .y((d) => yScale(d)); const futureLine = d3.line() // line generator .curve(d3.curveStepAfter) .x((d,i) => xScale(i+intervention)) .y((d) => yScale(d)); const area = d3.area() // area generator .curve(d3.curveStepAfter) .y0(yScale(0)) .x((d,i) => xScale(i)) .y1((d) => yScale(d)); const interventionArea = d3.area() // area generator .curve(d3.curveStepAfter) .x((d,i) => xScale(i+intervention)) .y1((d,i) => yScale(d[1])) .y0((d,i) => yScale(d[0])); const svg = d3.create("svg") // setup area .attr("width", width) .attr("height", height) .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]) .attr("style", "max-width: 100%; height: auto; height: intrinsic;"); svg.append('defs') // setup positive pattern fill .append('pattern') .attr('id', 'interventionPositivePattern') .attr('patternUnits', 'userSpaceOnUse') .attr('width', 8) .attr('height', 8) .append('path') .attr('d', 'M-1,1 l4,-4 M0,8 l8,-8 M6,10 l4,-4') .attr('stroke', "green") .attr("stroke-opacity", 0.6) .attr('stroke-width', 1.5); svg.append('defs') // setup negative pattern fill .append('pattern') .attr('id', 'interventionNegativePattern') .attr('patternUnits', 'userSpaceOnUse') .attr('width', 8) .attr('height', 8) .append('path') .attr('d', 'M-1,1 l4,-4 M0,8 l8,-8 M6,10 l4,-4') .attr('stroke', "red") .attr("stroke-opacity", 0.6) .attr('stroke-width', 1.5); svg.append("path") // draw wellbeing area .attr("fill", "lightgrey") .attr("stroke", "none") .attr("d", area(baselineData)); svg.append("path") // draw intervention positive wellbeing area // .attr('fill', 'url(#interventionPositivePattern)') .attr('fill', 'green') .attr("fill-opacity", 0.25) .attr("stroke", "none") .attr("d", interventionArea(interventionDifferencePositive.slice(intervention, interventionData.length+1))); svg.append("path") // draw intervention negative wellbeing area // .attr('fill', 'url(#interventionNegativePattern)') .attr('fill', 'red') .attr("fill-opacity", 0.25) .attr("stroke", "none") .attr("d", interventionArea(interventionDifferenceNegative.slice(intervention, interventionData.length+1))); svg.append("g") // draw x-axis .attr("transform", `translate(0,${height - marginBottom})`) .call(xAxis) .call(g => g.selectAll(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll("text") .attr("font-size", "20")) .call(g => g.append("text") .attr("x", width - marginRight) .attr("y", 40) //height-10) .attr("fill", "currentColor") .attr("text-anchor", "end") .attr("font-size", "20") .text("Age →")); svg.append("g") // draw x-grid .attr("transform", `translate(0,${height - marginBottom})`) .call(xGrid) .call(g => g.selectAll(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick text").remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick line") .attr("y2", -height + marginTop + marginBottom) .attr("stroke", "white") .attr("stroke-opacity", 0.6)); svg.append("g") // draw y-axis and grid .attr("transform", `translate(${marginLeft},0)`) .call(yAxis) .call(g => g.selectAll(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.selectAll(".tick line").clone() .attr("x2", width - marginLeft - marginRight) .attr("stroke", "white") .attr("stroke-opacity", 0.6)) .call(g => g.selectAll("text") .attr("font-size", "20")) .call(g => g.append("text") .attr("x", -marginLeft) .attr("y", 25) .attr("fill", "currentColor") .attr("text-anchor", "start") .attr("font-size", "20") .text("↑ Wellbeing")); if (connectednessAge !== undefined) { svg.append("line") // draw connectedness line .attr("stroke", "gray") .attr("stroke-width", 1) .attr("x1", xScale(0)) .attr("y1", yScale(0)) .attr("x2", xScale(connectednessAge)) .attr("y2", yScale(10)) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "7,3"); svg.append("line") // draw connectedness line .attr("stroke", "gray") .attr("stroke-width", 1) .attr("x1", xScale(connectednessAge)) .attr("y1", yScale(0)) .attr("x2", xScale(connectednessAge)) .attr("y2", yScale(10)) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "7,3"); svg.append("circle") // draw point at intervention .attr("cx", xScale(connectednessAge>intervention ? intervention : connectednessAge)) .attr("cy", yScale(connectedness*10)) .attr("r", "3") .attr("fill", "gray"); svg.append("text") // add connectedness label .attr("x", xScale(connectednessAge)-Math.min(55,xScale(connectednessAge)-55)) .attr("y", yScale(10)-10) // .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("font-size", "20") .attr("font-family", "sans-serif") .text("Age of connectedness"); svg.append("text") // add connectedness percentage label .attr("x", xScale(connectednessAge>intervention ? intervention : connectednessAge) + 7) .attr("y", yScale(connectedness*10)) .attr("alignment-baseline", "hanging") .attr("font-size", "20") .attr("font-family", "sans-serif") .text((connectedness*100).toFixed(0) + "% connectedness"); } if (neutral !== undefined) { svg.append("line") // draw neutral point line .attr("stroke", "gray") .attr("stroke-width", 1) .attr("x1", xScale(0)) .attr("y1", yScale(neutral)) .attr("x2", xScale(lifeSpan)) .attr("y2", yScale(neutral)) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "7,3"); svg.append("text") // add neutral point label .attr("x", xScale(lifeSpan)) .attr("y", yScale(neutral)-5) .attr("text-anchor", "end") .attr("font-size", "20") .attr("font-family", "sans-serif") .text("Neutral point"); } svg.append("line") // draw intervention line .attr("stroke", "gray") .attr("stroke-width", 2) .attr("x1", xScale(intervention)) .attr("y1", yScale(0)) .attr("x2", xScale(intervention)) .attr("y2", yScale(9.5)) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "1,3"); svg.append("path") // draw past wellbeing line .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", "black") .attr("stroke-width", 3) .attr("d", pastLine(baselineData.slice(0, intervention+1))); svg.append("path") // draw future wellbeing line .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", "gray") .attr("stroke-width", 3) .attr("d", futureLine(baselineData.slice(intervention, baselineData.length+1))); // .attr("stroke-dasharray", "15,5"); svg.append("path") // draw future intervention wellbeing line .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", "green") .attr("stroke-width", 3) .attr("d", futureLine(interventionData.slice(intervention, interventionData.length+1))) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "15,5"); svg.append("rect") // add intervention label background .attr("height", 15) .attr("width", 115) .attr("rx", 3) .attr("ry", 3) .attr("x", xScale(intervention)-Math.min(55,xScale(intervention)-45)-3) .attr("y", yScale(9.5)-16) .attr("fill", "white") .attr("fill-opacity", 0.75); svg.append("text") // add intervention label .attr("x", xScale(intervention)-Math.min(55,xScale(intervention)-45)) .attr("y", yScale(9.5)-5) // .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("font-size", "20") .attr("font-family", "sans-serif") .text(interventionTitle); return svg.node(); }35:T124e,function badnessOfDeath(data, intervention, connectedness, { marginTop = 55, // top margin, in pixels marginRight = 30, // right margin, in pixels marginBottom = 45, // bottom margin, in pixels marginLeft = 40, // left margin, in pixels width = 1600, // outer width, in pixels height = 400 // outer height, in pixels } = {}) { // Construct scales and axes. const xScale = d3.scaleLinear([0, lifeSpan], [marginLeft, width - marginRight]); const yScale = d3.scaleLinear([0, lifeSpan], [height - marginBottom, marginTop]); const xAxis = d3.axisBottom(xScale).ticks(width / 80).tickSizeOuter(0); const xGrid = d3.axisBottom(xScale).ticks(data.length).tickSizeOuter(0); const yAxis = d3.axisLeft(yScale).ticks(10); // extend data by one const baselineData = data; const line = d3.line() // line generator .curve(d3.curveLinear) .x((d,i) => xScale(i)) .y((d) => yScale(d)); const svg = d3.create("svg") // setup area .attr("width", width) .attr("height", height) .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height]) .attr("style", "max-width: 100%; height: auto; height: intrinsic;"); svg.append("g") // draw x-axis .attr("transform", `translate(0,${height - marginBottom})`) .call(xAxis) .call(g => g.selectAll("text") .attr("font-size", "20")) .call(g => g.selectAll(".domain") .attr("stroke", "black")) .call(g => g.append("text") .attr("x", width - marginRight) .attr("y", 40) //height-10) .attr("fill", "currentColor") .attr("text-anchor", "end") .attr("font-size", "20") .text("Age →")); svg.append("g") // draw y-axis and grid .attr("transform", `translate(${marginLeft},0)`) .call(yAxis) .call(g => g.selectAll("text") .attr("font-size", "20")) // .call(g => g.selectAll(".domain").remove()) .call(g => g.append("text") .attr("x", -marginLeft) .attr("y", 15) .attr("fill", "currentColor") .attr("text-anchor", "start") .attr("font-size", "20") .text("↑ Badness of death /")) .call(g => g.append("text") .attr("x", -marginLeft+10) .attr("y", 35) .attr("fill", "currentColor") .attr("text-anchor", "start") .attr("font-size", "20") .text("years of life lost")); svg.append("line") // draw intervention line .attr("stroke", "gray") .attr("stroke-width", 2) .attr("x1", xScale(intervention)) .attr("y1", yScale(0)) .attr("x2", xScale(intervention)) .attr("y2", yScale(baselineData[intervention])) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "1,3"); svg.append("line") // draw connectedness line .attr("stroke", "gray") .attr("stroke-width", 1) .attr("x1", xScale(connectedness)) .attr("y1", yScale(0)) .attr("x2", xScale(connectedness)) .attr("y2", yScale(lifeSpan-2)) .attr("stroke-dasharray", "7,3"); svg.append("text") // add connectedness label .attr("x", xScale(connectedness)-Math.min(55,xScale(connectedness)-45)) .attr("y", yScale(lifeSpan-2)-5) // .attr("text-anchor", "middle") .attr("font-size", "20") .attr("font-family", "sans-serif") .text("Age of connectedness"); svg.append("path") // draw line .attr("fill", "none") .attr("stroke", "black") .attr("stroke-width", 3) .attr("d", line(baselineData)); svg.append("circle") // draw point at intervention .attr("cx", xScale(intervention)) .attr("cy", yScale(baselineData[intervention])) .attr("r", "5"); svg.append("rect") // add intervention label background .attr("height", 15) .attr("width", 92) .attr("rx", 3) .attr("ry", 3) .attr("x", (intervention>connectedness||7>intervention) ? xScale(intervention)-3 : xScale(intervention)-90-Math.min(0,xScale(intervention)-0)) .attr("y", yScale(baselineData[intervention])-20) .attr("fill", "white") .attr("fill-opacity", 0.75); svg.append("text") // add intervention label .attr("x", xScale(intervention)-Math.min(0,xScale(intervention)-0)) .attr("y", yScale(baselineData[intervention])-10) .attr("text-anchor", (intervention>connectedness||7>intervention) ? "start" : "end") .attr("font-size", "20") .attr("font-family", "sans-serif") .text(baselineData[intervention].toFixed(0) + " years of life lost"); return svg.node(); }36:T4c8,37:[{"id":"f18adf185466ccbd0984c68c3f6f1ae172509a56a4f9ba73db617927f513fe0b8e77fc265b81a128c7b34aaf4e3437ef59d42fe46bf4d94174c6dbb8b2e1f41a","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/f18adf185466ccbd0984c68c3f6f1ae172509a56a4f9ba73db617927f513fe0b8e77fc265b81a128c7b34aaf4e3437ef59d42fe46bf4d94174c6dbb8b2e1f41a","name":"image.png","type":"image/png","lastModified":1706869086147.364,"size":27903}] 2d:{"id":"4e38a77ba454ed03","slug":null,"title":"The philosophy of choosing between extending and improving lives (presentation version)","thumbnail":"55427902cba82acb347ce9b8b0f574c50c3666a6abf423efa19bea97fa00f395","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2024-01-17T08:00:29.092Z","update_time":"$D2024-02-02T11:18:13.033Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2024-01-17T08:00:29.092Z","fork":{"id":"0fb658418729c8b0","slug":"the-philosophy-of-extending-or-improving-lives","title":"The philosophy of choosing between extending and improving lives","owner":{"id":"6c1f25ef90c27e9b","login":"johnwelford","name":""}},"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"6c1f25ef90c27e9b","login":"johnwelford","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3bfe9ac5315b1340bf914c84d1ed0ae174327f3802f4ba068fcaa4c223cfb471","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1930,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"629158c5ced3958f","login":"johnwelford","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3bfe9ac5315b1340bf914c84d1ed0ae174327f3802f4ba068fcaa4c223cfb471","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"629158c5ced3958f","login":"johnwelford","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3bfe9ac5315b1340bf914c84d1ed0ae174327f3802f4ba068fcaa4c223cfb471","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"The philosophy of choosing between extending and improving lives (presentation version)","cells":[{"id":4,"value":"# The philosophy of choosing between extending and improving lives (presentation version)\n\nFull text version [here](https://observablehq.com/@johnwelford/the-philosophy-of-extending-or-improving-lives).\n\nStart the presentation below then use the arrows / space bar to navigate.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1645,"value":"$2f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1655,"value":"slide`\n# The philosophy of choosing between extending and improving lives\nA representation of ideas from [The elephant in the bednet: the importance of philosophy when choosing between extending and improving lives](https://www.happierlivesinstitute.org/report/the-elephant-in-the-bednet) by Michael Plant, Joel McGuire, and Samuel Dupret.\n\nNo new ideas are presented here, everything originates with the original authors.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1868,"value":"slide`\nQR code for the original (interactive) version:\n${await FileAttachment(\"image.png\").image()}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1698,"value":"slide`\n## Part 1 - Visualising wellbeing\nConsider a 25 year-old who:\n* had a good childhood (self rated wellbeing = ${tex`\\frac{8}{10}`}) \n* had some rocky teenage years (self rated wellbeing = ${tex`\\frac{6}{10}`})\n* levelled off to a decent enough life (self rated wellbeing = ${tex`\\frac{7}{10}`})\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":15,"value":"slide`\nWe can graph their subjective rating of:\n\n**―** wellbeing to-date \n\n**―** expected wellbeing into the future\n\n▉ the number of wellbeing-adjusted life years (WELLBYs)\n\n${wellbeingChart(({\n baseline: Array(13).fill(8).concat(Array(5).fill(6)).concat(Array(lifeSpan-5-13).fill(7)),\n intervention: []\n}), 25, \" Current age\")}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1735,"value":"slide`\nConsider their decision to get a pet dog. \n\nThey like dogs: +1 wellbeing by one point for 10 years (**– –**)\n\nA dog will prevent taking a year off travelling: ${tex`\\frac{10}{10}`} for wellbeing.\n\n${wellbeingChart(({\n baseline: Array(13).fill(8)\n .concat(Array(5).fill(6))\n .concat(Array(12).fill(7)\n .concat(Array(1).fill(10))\n .concat(Array(Math.max(lifeSpan,35)-1-12-5-13).fill(7))),\n intervention: Array(13).fill(8)\n .concat(Array(5).fill(6))\n .concat(Array(7).fill(7)\n .concat(Array(10).fill(8))\n .concat(Array(Math.max(lifeSpan,35)-10-7-5-13).fill(7))),\n}), 25, \" Get dog?\")}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":494,"value":"slide`\nComparing WELLBYs for getting a dog, the dog provides:\n* 9 positive WELLBYs (▉)\n* 2 negative WELLBYs (▉)\n\nAn overall increase from baseline of **7** WELLBYs.\n\n${wellbeingChart(({\n baseline: Array(13).fill(8)\n .concat(Array(5).fill(6))\n .concat(Array(12).fill(7)\n .concat(Array(1).fill(10))\n .concat(Array(Math.max(lifeSpan,35)-1-12-5-13).fill(7))),\n intervention: Array(13).fill(8)\n .concat(Array(5).fill(6))\n .concat(Array(7).fill(7)\n .concat(Array(10).fill(8))\n .concat(Array(Math.max(lifeSpan,35)-10-7-5-13).fill(7))),\n}), 25, \" Get dog?\")}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":607,"value":"slide`\n## Part 2 - Accounting for the badness of death\nAdding up the change in WELLBYs for most life-*changing* interventions is straightforward. \n\nBut to compare WELLBYs for life-*saving* interventions... how many WELLBYs are generated by remaining alive?\n\nThis depends on the philosophical approach we take. Three possible views are:\n* *Epicureanism*\n* *Deprivationism*\n* a *Time-relative interest account* (TRIA)\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1746,"value":"slide`\n### Epicureanism\n*Being dead is not bad for the dead person (they have no subjective experience of being dead).*\n\nConsider a life-saving intervention for a ${interventionAge} year old, it could give them continued existence to ${lifeSpan} years, but it doesn't provide any WELLBYs (they are no better off than being dead).\n\n${wellbeingChart(({\n baseline: Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(0)),\n intervention: Array(lifeSpan).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel),\n interventionValue: Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(0)),\n}), interventionAge, \"Life-saving intervention?\")}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":629,"value":"slide`\n### Deprivationism\n*The badness of death is based on the wellbeing the person would have had if they’d lived longer.*\n\nGiving ${lifeSpan-interventionAge} years extra life with expected wellbeing ${tex`\\frac{${exampleWellbeingLevel}}{10}`} provides **${(lifeSpan-interventionAge)*exampleWellbeingLevel}** WELLBYs.\n\n${wellbeingChart(({\n baseline: Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(0)),\n intervention: Array(lifeSpan).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel),\n interventionValue: Array(lifeSpan).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel),\n}), interventionAge, \"Life-saving intervention?\")}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":649,"value":"slide`\n### Time-relative interest account (TRIA)\n*The badness of death depends on the age a person dies.*\n\nWELLBYs gained are:\n* zero if the intervention is at birth (similar to an Epicurean view)\n* the full value of expected wellbeing at some fully *psychologically connected* age (similar to a Deprivationist view). \n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1015,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":881,"value":"slide`\nAletrnatively, consider the years of life lost due to death at a certain age. \n\n${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, lifeSpan], {value: 10, step: 1, label: \"Life-saving intervention age\"}), viewof interventionAge)}\n${Inputs.bind(Inputs.range([0, lifeSpan], {value: 20, step: 1, label: \"Connectedness age\"}), viewof connectednessAge)}\n\n\n${badnessOfDeath(Array(lifeSpan+1).fill().map((_, i) => (lifeSpan - i)*Math.min(1,1-(connectednessAge-i)/(connectednessAge+0.00001))),\n interventionAge, connectednessAge)}\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":737,"value":"slide`\n## Part 3 - Nuances\n### The neutral point\nSo far (for Deprivationism and TRIA) we have assumed:\n\nDeath = zero wellbeing \n\nBut do low levels of wellbeing represent lives worth living?\n\nIs the *neutral point* some value above this?\n\n*neutral point* = continued existence is neither good nor bad for the person. \n\nWELLBYs are only gained relative to this level.\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1915,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1147,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1211,"value":"slide`\n## Part 4 - Holding a combination of views\n\nPhilosophers disagree on what viewpoint is 'correct'.\n\nOne option is to take an average across all views, weighted by you own personal credence. \n\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1314,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1659,"value":"slide.end('this ends the presentation')","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":603,"value":"#### Functions/Variables \n\n###### (no need to read past this point)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1763,"value":"viewof interventionAge = Inputs.range([0, lifeSpan], {value: 10, step: 1, label: \"Life-saving intervention age\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":698,"value":"viewof connectednessAge = Inputs.range([0, lifeSpan], {value: 20, step: 1, label: \"Connectedness age\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":890,"value":"viewof neutralPoint = Inputs.range([0, 10], {value: 3, step: 1, label: \"Neutral point\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":934,"value":"viewof lifeSpan = Inputs.range([0, 100], {value: 70, step: 1, label: \"Expected lifespan\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1149,"value":"viewof wellbeingLevelTrend = Inputs.range([-3, 3], {value: 0.5, step: 0.1, label: \"Expected wellbeing change per decade\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1050,"value":"viewof exampleWellbeingLevel = Inputs.range([0, 10], {value: 6, step: 1, label: \"Previous/expected wellbeing level\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1507,"value":"connectedness = Math.min(1,interventionAge/connectednessAge)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1087,"value":"wellbyCountFixed = { \n var baseline = Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel)\n .concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(neutralPoint));\n var interventionValue = Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel)\n .concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(neutralPoint + (exampleWellbeingLevel-neutralPoint) * connectedness));\n return baseline.reduce((a, b, i) => a + (Math.max(b, interventionValue[i]) - b) + (Math.min(b, interventionValue[i]) - b), 0);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1196,"value":"wellbyCountTriaProgress = { \n var baseline = Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel)\n .concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(neutralPoint));\n var interventionValue = Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill().map((_, i) => neutralPoint + (Math.max(0,Math.min(10,(exampleWellbeingLevel + (i/10)*wellbeingLevelTrend)))-neutralPoint) * connectedness));\n return baseline.reduce((a, b, i) => a + (Math.max(b, interventionValue[i]) - b) + (Math.min(b, interventionValue[i]) - b), 0);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1359,"value":"wellbyCountDepriProgress = { \n var baseline = Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel)\n .concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill(neutralPoint));\n var interventionValue = Array(interventionAge).fill(exampleWellbeingLevel).concat(Array(lifeSpan-interventionAge).fill().map((_, i) => neutralPoint + (Math.max(0,Math.min(10,(exampleWellbeingLevel + (i/10)*wellbeingLevelTrend)))-neutralPoint)));\n return baseline.reduce((a, b, i) => a + (Math.max(b, interventionValue[i]) - b) + (Math.min(b, interventionValue[i]) - b), 0);\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1839,"value":"viewof viewCredenceSplit2 = new ComponentSlider({\n data: [\n {\n percent: 20,\n color: \"#9C9691\"\n },\n {\n percent: 60,\n color: \"#A192D7\"\n },\n {\n percent: 20,\n color: \"#E18F3E\",\n last: true\n }\n]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":12,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":748,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1477,"value":"function set(input, value) {\n input.value = value;\n input.dispatchEvent(new Event(\"input\", {bubbles: true}));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1416,"value":"import {textcolor} from \"@observablehq/text-color-annotations-in-markdown\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1392,"value":"import {ComponentSlider} from '@johnwelford/component-slider-input'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1640,"value":"import {slide, keypresscontrol} from \"@wolfiex/a-presentation-framework-built-on-a-observablehq-notebook\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1661,"value":"keypresscontrol","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1672,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W37","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 2e:"$2d:body"