2f:T43e,// Process the candlestick data for visualization with proper field names chartData = { // Get the candlesticks data const candlesticks = downgrade.candlesticks || []; // Format it for charting - using the correct nested structure return candlesticks .map(candle => { // Extract timestamp const timestamp = candle.end_period_ts; // Extract the yes_bid.close value as our probability const probability = candle.yes_bid?.close || null; return { date: timestamp ? new Date(timestamp * 1000) : null, // Convert Unix timestamp to Date probability: probability, // Yes bid close price askPrice: candle.yes_ask?.close || null, // Also include ask price volume: candle.volume || 0, openInterest: candle.open_interest || 0 }; }) .filter(item => item.date instanceof Date && !isNaN(item.date) && item.probability !== null ) // Filter out invalid entries .sort((a, b) => a.date - b.date); // Sort by date ascending }30:T92f,// Give the chart a specific name for embedding viewof creditRatingChart = { const chart = Plot.plot({ marks: [ // Bid price line Plot.line(chartData, { x: "date", y: "probability", stroke: "steelblue", strokeWidth: 2 }), // Ask price line Plot.line(chartData, { x: "date", y: "askPrice", stroke: "coral", strokeWidth: 2 }), // Points for bid and ask Plot.dot(chartData, { x: "date", y: "probability", stroke: "steelblue", fill: "white", r: 3 }), Plot.dot(chartData, { x: "date", y: "askPrice", stroke: "coral", fill: "white", r: 3 }), // Add a rule for today Plot.ruleX([new Date()], {stroke: "gray", strokeDasharray: "5,5"}) ], y: { domain: [0, 100], label: "Price (%)", grid: true }, x: { label: "Date", grid: true }, height: 500, width: 800, marginRight: 60, marginLeft: 60, marginBottom: 40, marginTop: 40, // Add title title: "US Credit Rating Downgrade Probability", subtitle: "Bid and Ask prices from Kalshi prediction market" }); // Create the container with better positioned elements const container = html`

${chart}

Bid Price

Ask Price

ADJACENT

`; return container; }31:[{"id":"f8443ff01b2a350a45e9b08e6fa712a63ba43f205ea894d8ed5d7bec212c036cc901f56511ec1ad70307a1816406a8db4b1ddb0730f1e758f103f7c9ece1fc4f","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/f8443ff01b2a350a45e9b08e6fa712a63ba43f205ea894d8ed5d7bec212c036cc901f56511ec1ad70307a1816406a8db4b1ddb0730f1e758f103f7c9ece1fc4f","name":"downgrade@2.json","type":"application/json","lastModified":1745505554465.623,"size":17373}] 2d:{"title":"US credit rating downgrade","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# US credit rating downgrade","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":5,"value":"First, we're going to index the relevant markets associated with US credit rating using Adjacent.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":8,"value":"creditData = fetch(\n \"https://api.data.adj.news/api/markets?platform=kalshi&keyword=credit%20rating&api_key=38314d45-7899-4f51-a860-f6b898707a70\"\n).then((response) => response.json())","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":77,"value":"data = creditData.data","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":38,"value":"Inputs.table(creditData.data)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":136,"value":"We'll now pull historical pricing data directly from Kalshi. To do this, we need to use the curl request below. We'll save the JSON to a file and use Observable's FileAttachment feature. We are using as a file because of Kalshi's CORS policy.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":45,"value":"seriesTicker = \"KXCREDITRATING\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":51,"value":"marketTicker = \"KXCREDITRATING-25DEC31\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":156,"value":"curl --request GET \\\n --url 'https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXCREDITRATING/markets/KXCREDITRATING-25DEC31/candlesticks?start_ts=1744890938&end_ts=1745505452&period_interval=60' \\\n --header 'accept: application/json'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":192,"value":"downgrade = FileAttachment(\"downgrade@2.json\").json()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":201,"value":"We then use the following to process Kalshi's candlestick data for visualization with proper field names","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":168,"value":"$2f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":205,"value":"Lastly, we build the visualization.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":181,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W31","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}