2f:T163f,regions = [ new Region("Americas", [ new Team("Ninjas in Pyjamas", {points: 96}), new Team("Sentinels", {points: 87}), new Team("Team Nemesis", {points: 69}), new Team("Team Liquid", {points: 79}), new Team("Team Vision", {points: 79}), new Team("Source Gaming", {points: 38}), new Team("Thuggets", {points: 40}), new Team("Free Thinkers", {points: 30}), new Team("Elite Esports", {points: 45}), new Team("Full XI", {points: 45, tiebreak: 1}), ], [ new Team("Team Falcons", {points: 85}), new Team("HUSS", {points: 70}), new Team("AG Global", {points: 73}), new Team("Purple Slushee", {points: 42}), new Team("Men Of Culture", {points: 30}), new Team("Nice Guys", {points: 47}), new Team("Flat", {points: 67}), new Team("Zest Fest", {points: 38}), new Team("HbM", {points: 35}), new Team("Unreal Nightmare", {points: 32}), ], [ new Team("Crazy Thieves", {points: 62}), new Team("Shopify Rebellion", {points: 83}), new Team("Geekay Esports", {points: 79}), new Team("GodLike Esports", {points: 71}), new Team("ROC Esports", {points: 65}), new Team("JD Gaming", {points: 96}), new Team("Buckle Boys", {points: 51}), new Team("DINOS", {points: 79}), new Team("Revival", {points: 56}), new Team("Gamblers", {points: 31}), ], {daysComplete: 9, slots: 15} ), new Region("Europe, Middle East and Africa", [ new Team("Team WaR", {points: 87}), new Team("Made In Heaven", {points: 68}), new Team("Gaimin Gladiators", {points: 94}), new Team("Infinite", {points: 49}), new Team("Orgless and Hungry", {points: 0}), new Team("ZiPLine Mafia", {points: 84}), new Team("Blessed", {points: 0}), new Team("Majin", {points: 58}), new Team("Team Heretics", {points: 0}), new Team("Heavener", {points: 0}), ], [ new Team("BADNITS", {points: 83}), new Team("ForFun Esports", {points: 81}), new Team("NOVO Esports", {points: 0}), new Team("Ronin", {points: 52}), new Team("ECLIPSE", {points: 74}), new Team("MAMMA MIA", {points: 42}), new Team("TOP", {points: 74}), new Team("D4C", {points: 77}), new Team("3 MEN", {points: 57}), new Team("DN", {points: 56}), ], [ new Team("Alliance", {points: 104}), new Team("Aurora", {points: 111}), new Team("Ben", {points: 53}), new Team("The Vicious", {points: 0}), new Team("TLN Pirates", {points: 82}), new Team("hm", {points: 0}), new Team("Pixel Lumina", {points: 0}), new Team("FUL", {points: 54}), new Team("Summer Haze", {points: 64}), new Team("Potassium", {points: 21}), ], {daysComplete: 9, slots: 7} ), new Region("APAC North", [ new Team("ENTER FORCE.36", {points: 86}), new Team("SYRALE", {points: 55}), new Team("RIDDLE", {points: 30}), new Team("FENNEL", {points: 66}), new Team("TriniTY", {points: 86}), new Team("Big Boys", {points: 32}), new Team("Soleil Gaming", {points: 40}), new Team("KERNEL", {points: 25}), new Team("Dory", {points: 83}), new Team("SETOUCHI SPARKS", {points: 42}), ], [ new Team("Fnatic", {points: 44}), new Team("KINOTROPE", {points: 71}), new Team("REIGNITE", {points: 68}), new Team("REJECT", {points: 100}), new Team("REALIZE", {points: 44}), new Team("LawsonTicketXone", {points: 52}), new Team("BLACK Sheeps", {points: 59}), new Team("RRX", {points: 48}), new Team("WGR NEO", {points: 93}), new Team("FUNCTION KYOTO", {points: 49}), ], [ new Team("UNLIMIT", {points: 103}), new Team("SBI e-Sports", {points: 34}), new Team("GROW Gaming", {points: 54}), new Team("NOEZ FOXX", {points: 69}), new Team("Meteor", {points: 60}), new Team("WhiteGrimReaper", {points: 41}), new Team("TIE", {points: 45}), new Team("KINOTROPE Club", {points: 83}), new Team("ZETA DIVISION", {points: 125}), new Team("TIR", {points: 13}), ], {daysComplete: 9, slots: 10} ), new Region("APAC South", [ new Team("S8UL Esports", {points: 106}), new Team("Team Orchid", {points: 76}), new Team("RRQ", {points: 77}), new Team("Titan Esports Club", {points: 57}), new Team("HAVOC", {points: 80}), new Team("Veneno", {points: 48, tiebreak: -1}), new Team("BearClaw Gaming", {points: 65}), new Team("Inside The Ring", {points: 24}), new Team("ARAM", {points: 62}), new Team("GoaT", {points: 48}), ], [ new Team("Gen.G Esports", {points: 82}), new Team("VK Gaming", {points: 85, algsOpenTop5: true}), new Team("Grape Soda", {points: 24}), new Team("Weibo Gaming", {points: 47}), new Team("EDward Gaming", {points: 69}), new Team("Victory", {points: 68}), new Team("MaMa Clubs", {points: 57}), new Team("2C1M", {points: 46}), new Team("FIZ6 Gaming", {points: 34}), new Team("Autobotz eSports", {points: 29}), ], [ new Team("Dogred", {points: 53}), new Team("Wolves Esports", {points: 123}), new Team("PXX", {points: 87}), new Team("Deep Cross Gaming", {points: 64}), new Team("Tom Yum Kung", {points: 51}), new Team("Rendang", {points: 58}), new Team("QWQ", {points: 27}), new Team("Black Hole", {points: 37}), new Team("UBI CILEMBU", {points: 67}), new Team("HABNW", {points: 49}), ], {daysComplete: 9, slots: 8} ), ]30:T49d,class Team { constructor(name, options = {}) { this.name = name; this.points = options.points ?? 0; this.champsPoints = options.champsPoints ?? 0; this.wonFinals = options.wonFinals ?? false; this.algsOpenTop5 = options.algsOpenTop5 ?? false; this.withdrawn = options.withdrawn ?? false; this.tiebreak = options.tiebreak ?? 0; this.champsTiebreak = options.champsTiebreak ?? 0; this.regionName = options.regionName ?? null; } qualGuaranteed() { return this.wonFinals || this.algsOpenTop5; } copy() { return new Team(this.name, { points: this.points, champsPoints: this.champsPoints, wonFinals: this.wonFinals, algsOpenTop5: this.algsOpenTop5, withdrawn: this.withdrawn, tiebreak: this.tiebreak, regionName: this.regionName, }); } sortKey() { return this.points + this.tiebreak * 0.01 + Math.random() * 0.0001; } effectiveChampsPoints() { return this.champsPoints; // apparently max(champsPoints, champsPoints*2/3+subPoints) was wrong } champsSortKey() { return this.effectiveChampsPoints() + this.champsTiebreak * 0.01 + Math.random() * 0.0001; } }31:T46e,function runSplit(region, snitchDay = () => {}) { const regionCopy = region.copy(); const days = [ regionCopy.groupA.concat(regionCopy.groupB), regionCopy.groupA.concat(regionCopy.groupC), regionCopy.groupB.concat(regionCopy.groupC), regionCopy.groupA.concat(regionCopy.groupB), regionCopy.groupA.concat(regionCopy.groupC), regionCopy.groupB.concat(regionCopy.groupC), regionCopy.groupA.concat(regionCopy.groupB), regionCopy.groupA.concat(regionCopy.groupC), regionCopy.groupB.concat(regionCopy.groupC), ].slice(regionCopy.daysComplete ?? 0); for (const day of days) { runDay(day, snitchDay, false); } const finalsTeams = _(regionCopy.allTeams()) .sortBy(team => team.sortKey()) .reverse() .take(20) .value(); let finalsWinner; if (regionCopy.daysComplete < 10) { const snitchFinal = (team, index) => { if (index == 0) { team.wonFinals = true; } snitchDay(team, index); } runDay(finalsTeams, snitchFinal, true); } const result = new RegionSplitResult(regionCopy.allTeams(), finalsTeams, region.slots); return result; }32:T846,async function* runSplits(region, trials) { const teamsByName = _.keyBy(region.allTeams(), 'name'); const qualCounts = _.mapValues(teamsByName, () => 0); const finalsCounts = _.mapValues(teamsByName, () => 0); const relegateCounts = _.mapValues(teamsByName, () => 0); const calcResults = (i = trials) => { const done = i == trials; const data = _(teamsByName) .values() .map(team => ({ name: team.name, qualPct: 100 * qualCounts[team.name] / i, points: team.points, finalsPct: 100 * finalsCounts[team.name] / i, ...(RELEGATING ? {relegatePct: 100 * relegateCounts[team.name] / i} : {}), })) .sortBy(x => x.points) .sortBy(x => x.qualPct) .reverse() .value(); return {done, data, i} } for (let i = 0; i < trials; i++) { const thisResult = runSplit(region); if (region.slots > 0) { for (const team of thisResult.qualifiedTeams) { qualCounts[team.name]++; } } else { const otherResults = regions.filter(r => r.name !== region.name).map(r => runSplit(r)); const autoQualifiedTeams = []; const nonAutoQualifiedTeams = []; for (const result of [thisResult, ...otherResults]) { autoQualifiedTeams.push(...result.teamsByPoints.filter((team, index) => index === 0 || team.wonFinals)); nonAutoQualifiedTeams.push(...result.teamsByPoints.filter((team, index) => index !== 0 && !team.wonFinals)); } const teamsByPoints = _(nonAutoQualifiedTeams) .sortBy(team => team.champsSortKey()) .reverse() .take(32 - autoQualifiedTeams.length) .value(); for (const qualTeam of [...autoQualifiedTeams, ...teamsByPoints]) { if (qualTeam.regionName === region.name) { qualCounts[qualTeam.name]++; } } } for (const team of thisResult.finalsTeams) { finalsCounts[team.name]++; } for (const team of thisResult.relegatedTeams) { relegateCounts[team.name]++; } if (i % trialsPerTick == 0) { yield calcResults(i) } } yield calcResults() }33:T941,async function* runSplitsWithFocus(region, trials, focusTeam) { const qualCounts = Object.fromEntries(_.range(20).map(x => [x + 1, 0])); const finalsCounts = _.clone(qualCounts); const relegateCounts = _.clone(qualCounts); const runCounts = _.clone(qualCounts); const calcResult = (i = trials) => { const done = i == trials; const data = _.range(20).map(index => { const rank = index + 1; return { rank, qualPct: 100 * qualCounts[rank] / runCounts[rank], finalsPct: 100 * finalsCounts[rank] / runCounts[rank], relegatePct: 100 * relegateCounts[rank] / runCounts[rank], samples: runCounts[rank] }; }); return {done, data, i}; } for (let i = 0; i < trials; i++) { let nextDayRank = null; const thisResult = runSplit(region, (team, index) => { if (team.name === focusTeam && nextDayRank === null) { nextDayRank = index + 1; } }); if (nextDayRank === null) { // did not play? continue; } runCounts[nextDayRank]++; if (region.slots > 0) { if (thisResult.qualifiedTeams.some(team => team.name === focusTeam)) { qualCounts[nextDayRank]++; } } else { const otherResults = regions.filter(r => r.name !== region.name).map(r => runSplit(r)); const autoQualifiedTeams = []; const nonAutoQualifiedTeams = []; for (const result of [thisResult, ...otherResults]) { autoQualifiedTeams.push(...result.teamsByPoints.filter((team, index) => index === 0 || team.wonFinals)); nonAutoQualifiedTeams.push(...result.teamsByPoints.filter((team, index) => index !== 0 && !team.wonFinals)); } const teamsByPoints = _(nonAutoQualifiedTeams) .sortBy(team => team.champsSortKey()) .reverse() .take(32 - autoQualifiedTeams.length) .value(); for (const qualTeam of [...autoQualifiedTeams, ...teamsByPoints]) { if (qualTeam.name === focusTeam) { qualCounts[nextDayRank]++; } } } if (thisResult.finalsTeams.some(team => team.name === focusTeam)) { finalsCounts[nextDayRank]++; } if (thisResult.relegatedTeams.some(team => team.name === focusTeam)) { relegateCounts[nextDayRank]++; } if (i % trialsPerTick == 0) { yield calcResult(i); } } yield calcResult(); }34:[{"id":"7d9ebdd6f3f17bc77634280c155f0318e94ee4865b9659957a6b7e7857df99b09d4b1cb58430146998ee2807ce4e385091ef813dd4c83fcb57e92739a78d438a","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/7d9ebdd6f3f17bc77634280c155f0318e94ee4865b9659957a6b7e7857df99b09d4b1cb58430146998ee2807ce4e385091ef813dd4c83fcb57e92739a78d438a","name":"image.png","type":"image/png","lastModified":1755584976589.114,"size":4576}] 2d:{"title":"Apex Legends Monte Carlo Motherlode","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Apex Legends Monte Carlo Motherlode\n\nAssembled by [boringcactus](https://boringcactus.com) (who does not even go here) with advice from [/u/Bereft13](https://old.reddit.com/user/Bereft13) (who does).\n\nData updated post AMER day 9 (5/31)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":22,"value":"viewof regionName = Inputs.select(regions.map(r => r.name), {label: \"Region\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":30,"value":"viewof trials = Inputs.range(\n [1000, regions.find(r => r.name === regionName).slots > 0 ? 1e6 : 300000],\n {label: \"Trials\", step: 1000, value: 5000}\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":61,"value":"splitsResults = runSplits(regions.find(r => r.name == regionName), trials)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":203,"value":"splitsResultsData = splitsResults.data","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":68,"value":"splitsResultsData","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":96,"value":"## Next-Day Analysis","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":83,"value":"viewof focusTeam = Inputs.select([\"None\", ...splitsResultsData.map(x => x.name)], {label: \"Team to run next-day analysis against\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":113,"value":"viewof focusTrials = Inputs.range([2000, 1e6], {label: \"Next-Day Trials\", step: 1000, value: 5000})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":105,"value":"focusResults = focusTeam === \"None\" ? {done: false, data: []} : runSplitsWithFocus(regions.find(r => r.name == regionName), focusTrials, focusTeam)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":210,"value":"focusResultsData = focusResults.data","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":130,"value":"htl.html`${\n [100, 95, 90, 80, 50, 20, 10, 5, 1]\n .map(targetPct => ({targetPct, rankNeeded: focusResultsData.findLast(x => x.qualPct >= targetPct)?.rank ?? \"-\"}))\n .filter(({targetPct, rankNeeded}, index, list) => list[index - 1]?.rankNeeded !== rankNeeded)\n .map(({targetPct, rankNeeded}) => htl.html``)\n}

% to Qualify	Rank Needed on Next Day
${targetPct}%	${rankNeeded}

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":313,"value":"Plot.plot({\n y: {domain: [0, 100], label: \"%\"},\n color: {domain: [\"qual\", \"finals\", ...(RELEGATING ? [\"relegate\"] : [])], range: [\"hsl(60, 50%, 50%)\", \"hsl(120, 50%, 50%)\", \"hsl(0, 50%, 50%)\"], legend: true},\n marks: [\n Plot.lineY(focusResultsData.map(x => ({line: \"finals\", ...x})), {\n x: \"rank\",\n y: \"finalsPct\",\n stroke: \"line\", // #5f5\n tip: true\n }),\n Plot.lineY(focusResultsData.map(x => ({line: \"qual\", ...x})), {\n x: \"rank\",\n y: \"qualPct\",\n stroke: \"line\", // \"#c9d33a\",\n tip: true\n }),\n RELEGATING ? Plot.lineY(focusResultsData.map(x => ({line: \"relegate\", ...x})), {\n x: \"rank\",\n y: \"relegatePct\",\n stroke: \"line\", // #f55\n tip: true\n }) : null,\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":9,"value":"## Region Data","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":11,"value":"$2f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":436,"value":"RELEGATING = false","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":28,"value":"## Utilities","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":5,"value":"$30","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":18,"value":"class Region {\n constructor(name, groupA, groupB, groupC, options = {}) {\n this.name = name;\n this.groupA = groupA;\n this.groupB = groupB;\n this.groupC = groupC;\n // pass no slots to qualify using champsPoints instead\n this.slots = options.slots ?? 0;\n this.daysComplete = options.daysComplete ?? 0;\n\n this.allTeams().forEach(team => {team.regionName = name})\n }\n\n copy() {\n return new Region(\n this.name,\n this.groupA.map(team => team.copy()),\n this.groupB.map(team => team.copy()),\n this.groupC.map(team => team.copy()),\n {\n slots: this.slots,\n daysComplete: this.daysComplete\n }\n )\n }\n\n allTeams() {\n return [...this.groupA, ...this.groupB, ...this.groupC];\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":629,"value":"class RegionSplitResult {\n constructor(teams, finalsTeams, qualSlots) {\n const teamsByPoints = _(teams)\n .sortBy(team => team.sortKey())\n .reverse()\n .value();\n teamsByPoints.forEach((team, index) => team.champsPoints += CHAMPS_SCORES[index]);\n this.teamsByPoints = teamsByPoints;\n this.finalsTeams = finalsTeams;\n const teamsByQualThenPoints = _(teamsByPoints)\n .sortBy(team => team.qualGuaranteed() ? 1e9 : 0 + team.sortKey())\n .reverse()\n .value();\n if (qualSlots > 0) {\n this.qualifiedTeams = _.take(teamsByQualThenPoints, qualSlots);\n }\n this.relegatedTeams = _.takeRight(teamsByPoints, RELEGATING ? 8 : 0);\n }\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":42,"value":"$31","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":52,"value":"function runDay(teams, snitchDay, isFinals) {\n const dayResults = _.shuffle(teams.filter(x => !x.withdrawn));\n _.each(dayResults, (team, index) => {\n snitchDay(team, index);\n team.points += (isFinals ? FINALS_SCORES : SCORES)[index];\n })\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":57,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":99,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":439,"value":"SCORES = [25, 21, 18, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":493,"value":"FINALS_SCORES = [35, 29, 25, 22, 21, 20, 18, 17, 15, 14, 13, 11, 10, 8, 7, 6, 4, 3, 1, 0]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":657,"value":"CHAMPS_SCORES = [580, 450, 370, 290, 250, 210, 170, 130, 96, 80, 64, 48, 32, 30, 28, 26, 24, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5].map(playerPoints => playerPoints * 3)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":248,"value":"## Performance Tuning\n\nThe UI will render partial results intermittently to avoid freezing the UI completely.\nRendering these partial results more often slows down the total process, but rendering them less often causes the whole UI to be less responsive.\nThe default setting of 1000 trials per UI update is probably fine, but if you for some reason need to play with this value, you can.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":236,"value":"viewof logTrialsPerTick = Inputs.range(\n [2, regions.find(r => r.name === regionName).slots > 0 ? 4 : 3.5],\n {value: regions.find(r => r.name === regionName).slots > 0 ? 3 : 2.5, label: \"log(Trials Per Tick)\", step: 0.1}\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":243,"value":"trialsPerTick = Math.round(Math.pow(10, logTrialsPerTick))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":223,"value":"## The Messing Around Zone","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md"},{"id":225,"value":"finalsTeams = _.sum(splitsResultsData.map(x => x.finalsPct)) / 100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"},{"id":557,"value":"qualTeams = _.sum(splitsResultsData.map(x => x.qualPct)) / 100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}