27:null 28:["$","title",null,{"children":"The Substitution Effect: Strategic Creative Management of Ad Assets for Sustained Performance | AdSights | Observable"}] 2d:T1519,generateSubstitutionData = function(numPoints) { const data = []; // Starting values let fatiguedCreativeROAS = 4.0; let newCreativeROAS = 0; let prevNewCreativeROAS = 0; for (let i = 0; i < numPoints; i++) { // Initial phase: Stable performance if (i < initialPhaseEnd) { const approachingTransition = i / initialPhaseEnd; if (approachingTransition > 0.7) { fatiguedCreativeROAS = 4.0 - (approachingTransition - 0.7) * 1.5 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.3; } else { fatiguedCreativeROAS = 4.0 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.5; } newCreativeROAS = 0; } // Transition phase else if (i < transitionPhaseEnd) { const phaseProgress = (i - initialPhaseEnd) / (transitionPhaseEnd - initialPhaseEnd); fatiguedCreativeROAS -= 0.05 + (phaseProgress * 0.08) + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.2; fatiguedCreativeROAS = Math.max(fatiguedCreativeROAS, 1.0); const isInLearningPhase = i >= initialPhaseEnd && i < learningPhaseEnd; if (i === initialPhaseEnd) { newCreativeROAS = 0.5 + (Math.random() * 0.5); prevNewCreativeROAS = newCreativeROAS; } else if (isInLearningPhase) { prevNewCreativeROAS = newCreativeROAS; const volatilityFactor = 0.4 + (Math.random() * 0.8); const direction = Math.random() > 0.5 ? 1 : -1; newCreativeROAS = newCreativeROAS + (direction * volatilityFactor); if (Math.abs(newCreativeROAS - prevNewCreativeROAS) < 0.1) { newCreativeROAS += (Math.random() > 0.5 ? 0.3 : -0.3); } newCreativeROAS = Math.max(0.1, Math.min(2.5, newCreativeROAS)); if (newCreativeROAS < 0.25 || newCreativeROAS > 2.45) { newCreativeROAS = newCreativeROAS < 0.25 ? 0.3 + (Math.random() * 0.4) : 2.4 - (Math.random() * 0.4); } } else { const postLearningProgress = (i - learningPhaseEnd) / (transitionPhaseEnd - learningPhaseEnd); const targetValue = 3.8 + (postLearningProgress * 0.2); const currentDistance = targetValue - newCreativeROAS; const shouldRegress = Math.random() < (0.3 - (postLearningProgress * 0.2)); if (shouldRegress) { newCreativeROAS -= (Math.random() * 0.3); } else { const stepSize = Math.min(0.12, currentDistance * 0.04); const naturalVariation = (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.3; newCreativeROAS += (stepSize + naturalVariation); } } } // Stabilization phase else { fatiguedCreativeROAS -= 0.01 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.1; fatiguedCreativeROAS = Math.max(fatiguedCreativeROAS, 0.5); const stabilizationProgress = (i - transitionPhaseEnd) / (numPoints - transitionPhaseEnd); const shouldRegress = Math.random() < 0.15; if (shouldRegress) { newCreativeROAS -= (Math.random() * 0.4); } else { const naturalVariation = (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.4; const growthBias = 0.025 * Math.max(0, 1 - stabilizationProgress); newCreativeROAS += naturalVariation + growthBias; } } // Ensure values stay within bounds fatiguedCreativeROAS = Math.max(0, Math.min(5.8, fatiguedCreativeROAS)); newCreativeROAS = Math.max(0, Math.min(5.8, newCreativeROAS)); // Calculate strategies const isLearningPhase = i >= initialPhaseEnd && i < learningPhaseEnd; // Abrupt strategy const abruptFatiguedSpend = i < initialPhaseEnd ? 1000 : 0; const abruptNewSpend = i < initialPhaseEnd ? 0 : 1000; // Weaned strategy let weanedFatiguedSpend = 1000; let weanedNewSpend = 0; if (i >= initialPhaseEnd) { const daysSinceTransition = i - initialPhaseEnd; const baseAllocationPercent = Math.min(0.5, 0.1 + (daysSinceTransition / 50)); let performanceBasedAllocation = 0; if (newCreativeROAS > 0) { const performanceRatio = fatiguedCreativeROAS / newCreativeROAS; performanceBasedAllocation = Math.max(0, 0.5 - Math.min(0.5, (performanceRatio - 0.5) / 0.5)); } const newCreativeAllocationPercent = Math.min(1, baseAllocationPercent + performanceBasedAllocation); weanedNewSpend = Math.round(1000 * newCreativeAllocationPercent); weanedFatiguedSpend = 1000 - weanedNewSpend; } // Calculate weighted ROAS const abruptWeightedROAS = (abruptFatiguedSpend * fatiguedCreativeROAS + abruptNewSpend * newCreativeROAS) / 1000; const weanedWeightedROAS = (weanedFatiguedSpend * fatiguedCreativeROAS + weanedNewSpend * newCreativeROAS) / 1000; // Calculate revenue const abruptRevenue = abruptFatiguedSpend * fatiguedCreativeROAS + abruptNewSpend * newCreativeROAS; const weanedRevenue = weanedFatiguedSpend * fatiguedCreativeROAS + weanedNewSpend * newCreativeROAS; const revenueDifference = weanedRevenue - abruptRevenue; data.push({ day: i, fatiguedCreativeROAS, newCreativeROAS, abruptWeightedROAS, weanedWeightedROAS, abruptFatiguedSpend, abruptNewSpend, weanedFatiguedSpend, weanedNewSpend, learningPhase: isLearningPhase, abruptRevenue, weanedRevenue, revenueDifference }); } return data; }2e:T4ff,md`

Fatigued Creative

New Creative

Current Strategy ROAS

Alternative Strategy ROAS

Learning Phase

`2f:T498,md`## Key Insights ### ${strategy} Strategy Performance ${strategy === "Weaned" ? "The weaned strategy maintains higher overall ROAS by gradually shifting budget as the new creative learns and improves. This approach minimizes losses during the learning phase and results in higher cumulative revenue." : "The abrupt strategy causes a significant performance dip during the learning phase, as all budget is immediately allocated to the unoptimized new creative. While implementation is simpler, this approach sacrifices performance and revenue." } ### Why This Matters Creative fatigue is inevitable, but how you transition to new creatives can dramatically impact your campaign's overall performance. A strategic approach to creative substitution can yield significant revenue benefits without sacrificing long-term performance. ### Try It Yourself 1. Toggle between "Weaned" and "Abrupt" strategies above 2. Click "Generate New Scenario" to see different performance patterns 3. Compare the revenue impact and ROAS curves For more advanced AI-powered creative analytics tools, visit our [AI-powered creative analytics platform - AdSights](https://www.adsights.ai).`30:[] 2b:{"id":"bd19fca18c8843ac","slug":null,"title":"The Substitution Effect: Strategic Creative Management of Ad Assets for Sustained Performance","thumbnail":"1003d5ff7efb532c3055e08111426b52f3c2999b0cb8ab1fa4662c43875460c3","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2025-04-07T14:55:57.570Z","update_time":"$D2025-04-07T15:43:16.764Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2025-04-07T14:55:57.570Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"6aaff5da9f4149c4","login":"adsights","name":"AdSights","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/40a7ae29cb60bd79facc34ad88f7c68da91698ae987804142bcecff104cb1afc","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":175,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"6aaff5da9f4149c4","login":"adsights","name":"AdSights","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/40a7ae29cb60bd79facc34ad88f7c68da91698ae987804142bcecff104cb1afc","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"cc45a0214423af89","login":"morgan-titcher","name":"Morgan Titcher","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/4fb0b8ed6323144fa69a8985b1b2de7172f1af2368f0dd30a6fbc7a5ca352231","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"The Substitution Effect: Strategic Creative Management of Ad Assets for Sustained Performance","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# The Substitution Effect: Strategic Creative Management of Ad Assets for Sustained Performance","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":62,"value":"This visualization demonstrates how different creative management strategies (abrupt vs. gradual substitution) impact overall campaign performance. When introducing new ad creatives to replace fatiguing ones, the strategy you choose can significantly affect your return on ad spend ([ROAS](https://www.adsights.ai/resources/glossary/metrics/return-on-ad-spend-roas)).\n\nBy [AdSights](https://www.adsights.ai) - AI-powered creative analytics for paid media advertisements.\n\n*For a more interactive version of this chart, see the accompanying article on [managing creative fatigue](https://www.adsights.ai/blog/topics/creative-strategy/creative-fatigue-in-meta-ads-detection-and-management-strategies) on our company blog.*","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"// Title: The Substitution Effect: Strategic Creative Management for Sustained Performance\n// Author: AdSights (https://www.adsights.ai.ai)\n\n// Try editing values for phase durations, volatility, or other assumptions to see how it alters the final output!","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":133,"value":"Plot = require(\"@observablehq/plot\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":59,"value":"Inputs = require(\"@observablehq/inputs\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":68,"value":"viewof strategy = Inputs.radio(\n [\"Weaned\", \"Abrupt\"], \n {\n label: \"Strategy\",\n value: \"Weaned\"\n }\n)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":76,"value":"viewof regenerateButton = Inputs.button(\"Generate New Scenario\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":26,"value":"numPoints = 100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":86,"value":"initialPhase = 0.2 // 20% - Initial stable performance","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":90,"value":"transitionPhase = 0.5 // 50% - Transition period","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":92,"value":"learningPhaseDuration = 0.20 // 20% - Learning phase duration","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":81,"value":"initialPhaseEnd = Math.floor(numPoints * initialPhase)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":97,"value":"learningPhaseEnd = initialPhaseEnd + Math.floor(numPoints * learningPhaseDuration)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":99,"value":"transitionPhaseEnd = Math.floor(numPoints * (initialPhase + transitionPhase))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":138,"value":"fatiguedCreativeColor = \"rgb(248, 113, 113)\" // Red","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":140,"value":"newCreativeColor = \"rgb(74, 222, 128)\" // Green","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":142,"value":"weightedROASColor = \"rgb(192, 132, 252)\" // Purple","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":144,"value":"alternativeROASColor = \"rgb(156, 163, 175)\" // Gray","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":146,"value":"learningPhaseColor = \"rgba(59, 130, 246, 0.15)\" // Light blue","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":101,"value":"$2d","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":103,"value":"baseData = {\n regenerateButton;\n return generateSubstitutionData(numPoints);\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":150,"value":"md`## Understanding the Data\n\nThis simulation shows how creative performance evolves over time. The data includes:\n\n- **Days 0-${initialPhaseEnd}**: Initial stable period with the original creative\n- **Days ${initialPhaseEnd+1}-${learningPhaseEnd}**: Learning phase for the new creative (high volatility)\n- **Days ${learningPhaseEnd+1}-${transitionPhaseEnd}**: Growth phase for the new creative\n- **Days ${transitionPhaseEnd+1}-${numPoints}**: Stabilization phase\n\nLet's examine how different budget allocation strategies affect performance during these phases.`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":106,"value":"displayData = {\n const isWeaned = strategy === \"Weaned\";\n \n return baseData.map(point => {\n if (isWeaned) {\n return {\n ...point,\n fatiguedCreativeSpend: point.weanedFatiguedSpend,\n newCreativeSpend: point.weanedNewSpend,\n weightedROAS: point.weanedWeightedROAS,\n alternativeROAS: point.abruptWeightedROAS\n };\n } else {\n return {\n ...point,\n fatiguedCreativeSpend: point.abruptFatiguedSpend,\n newCreativeSpend: point.abruptNewSpend,\n weightedROAS: point.abruptWeightedROAS,\n alternativeROAS: point.weanedWeightedROAS\n };\n }\n });\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":108,"value":"totalRevenueDifference = {\n const isWeaned = strategy === \"Weaned\";\n \n // If weaned strategy is selected, the difference is positive (weaned - abrupt)\n // If abrupt strategy is selected, the difference is negative (abrupt - weaned)\n return isWeaned \n ? displayData.reduce((sum, point) => sum + point.revenueDifference, 0)\n : displayData.reduce((sum, point) => sum - point.revenueDifference, 0);\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":110,"value":"md`## Revenue Impact: ${totalRevenueDifference > 0 ? '+' : ''}$${Math.abs(totalRevenueDifference).toLocaleString()}\n\n${strategy === \"Weaned\" \n ? \"The weaned strategy outperforms the abrupt strategy by this amount over the campaign period.\"\n : \"The abrupt strategy underperforms the weaned strategy by this amount over the campaign period.\"\n}`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":152,"value":"md`## ROAS Comparison\n\nThe chart below shows the Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) over time for both strategies. Notice how the ${strategy === \"Weaned\" ? \"weaned\" : \"abrupt\"} strategy (purple line) compares to the ${strategy === \"Weaned\" ? \"abrupt\" : \"weaned\"} strategy (gray dashed line).\n\nThe blue shaded area represents the learning phase, where new creative performance is typically volatile and unpredictable.`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":112,"value":"roasChart = Plot.plot({\n y: {\n grid: true,\n label: \"ROAS (x)\",\n domain: [0, 6]\n },\n x: {\n label: \"Days\",\n tickFormat: d => d\n },\n marks: [\n // Learning phase reference area\n Plot.rectY([{\n x1: initialPhaseEnd,\n x2: learningPhaseEnd,\n y1: 0,\n y2: 6\n }], {\n fill: learningPhaseColor\n }),\n \n // Current strategy ROAS line\n Plot.line(displayData, {\n x: \"day\",\n y: \"weightedROAS\",\n stroke: weightedROASColor,\n strokeWidth: 3\n }),\n \n // Alternative strategy ROAS line\n Plot.line(displayData, {\n x: \"day\",\n y: \"alternativeROAS\",\n stroke: alternativeROASColor,\n strokeWidth: 2,\n strokeDasharray: \"5,5\"\n })\n ],\n width: 800,\n height: 400,\n marginLeft: 60,\n marginRight: 40\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":155,"value":"md`## Budget Allocation\n\nThe chart below shows how budget is allocated between the fatigued creative and new creative over time with the ${strategy} strategy.\n\n${strategy === \"Weaned\" \n ? \"Notice how the weaned approach gradually shifts budget as the new creative proves itself, providing a smoother transition.\"\n : \"The abrupt strategy shifts all budget immediately at day \" + initialPhaseEnd + \", regardless of the new creative's initial performance.\"\n}`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":114,"value":"spendChart = Plot.plot({\n y: {\n grid: true,\n label: \"Daily Spend ($)\",\n domain: [0, 1200]\n },\n x: {\n label: \"Days\"\n },\n marks: [\n // Learning phase reference area\n Plot.rectY([{\n x1: initialPhaseEnd,\n x2: learningPhaseEnd,\n y1: 0,\n y2: 1200\n }], {\n fill: learningPhaseColor\n }),\n \n // Stacked area chart for spend\n Plot.areaY(displayData, {\n x: \"day\",\n y: \"fatiguedCreativeSpend\",\n fill: fatiguedCreativeColor\n }),\n \n Plot.areaY(displayData, {\n x: \"day\",\n y2: \"fatiguedCreativeSpend\",\n y: d => d.fatiguedCreativeSpend + d.newCreativeSpend,\n fill: newCreativeColor\n })\n ],\n width: 800,\n height: 300,\n marginLeft: 60,\n marginRight: 40\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":116,"value":"$2e","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":94,"value":"$2f","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W30","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 2c:"$2b:body"