The avatar for @hazelfire
Sam Nolan
Public
Edited
Jan 10, 2023
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viewof portion_of_x_risk_for_ai = cell(`portion_of_x_risk_for_ai = beta({mean: 0.5, stdev: 0.3})
portion_of_x_risk_for_ai`, [], {showSummary: true})
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viewof portion_of_x_risk_reduced_given_miri_solves_agent_foundations = cell(`portion_of_x_risk_reduced_given_miri_solves_agent_foundations = beta({mean: 0.01, stdev: 0.013})`, [], {showSummary: true})
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viewof chance_miri_solves_its_technical_agenda = cell(`chance_miri_solves_its_technical_agenda = beta({mean: 0.1, stdev: 0.05})`)
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viewof total_costs_of_miri = cell(`total_costs_of_miri = 10000000 to 1000000000000`)
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viewof risk_reduction_with_miri = cell(`risk_reduction_with_miri = portion_of_x_risk_for_ai * portion_of_x_risk_reduced_given_miri_solves_agent_foundations * chance_miri_solves_its_technical_agenda
risk_reduction_with_miri`, [portion_of_x_risk_for_ai, portion_of_x_risk_reduced_given_miri_solves_agent_foundations, chance_miri_solves_its_technical_agenda])
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