3e:null 3f:["$","title",null,{"children":"US Federal Government Fiscal Trends | Christian Klettner | Observable"}] 45:T442,

Due to the US Government shutdown the US Department of Treasury has annouced: Normal operations have resumed. Some data updates and support services may be delayed as we work to process pending publications. We will return to our normal update schedule as soon as possible.

46:T84c,{ let palreceipts = d3.range(0,1+1/11, 1/11).map(d => d3.lab(d3.interpolateCool(d)).hex()); let paloutlays = d3.range(0,1+1/34, 1/34).map(d => d3.lab(d3.interpolateWarm(d)).hex()); let temp = d3.group(latest. filter(d => ![10, 490, 500, 510, 530, 540, 130, 140, 150, 160].includes(d.lineitem)). map((d,i) => ({ ...d, curramt: d.lineitem === 520 ? -d.curramt : d.curramt, ytdamt: d.lineitem === 520 ? -d.ytdamt : d.ytdamt, type: d.lineitem === 520 ? "Receipts" : d.lineitem < 130 ? "Receipts" : "Outlays" })), v => v.type); let temp2 = [ ...temp.get("Receipts").map((d,i) => ({ ...d, deficit: d.lineitem === 520, color: d.lineitem === 520 ? "white" : palreceipts[i] })). sort((a,b) => a.deficit - b.deficit), ...temp.get("Outlays"). map((d,i) => ({ ...d, color: paloutlays[i], desc: d.lineitem === 370 ? "Treasury: Other" : d.desc })) ]; let plot = Plot.plot({ title: `Fiscal Position: ${d3.timeFormat("%B %Y")(maxdate)}`, subtitle: m === "curramt" ? "Current Month" : "Year to Date", y: { label: null }, x: { axis: "both", label: "Amount ($m)", grid: true }, marginLeft: 60, marginTop: 40, marginBottom: 40, height: 300, marks: [ Plot.axisY([0.5, 1.75], { y: d => d, text: (d,i) => ["Outlays", "Receipts"][i] }), Plot.ruleY([-0.2, 2.5]), Plot.ruleX([0]), Plot.rectX(temp2, { x: m, fill: "color", stroke: d => d.lineitem === 520 ? "black" : "white", strokeWidth: 0.5, y1: d => d.type === "Outlays" ? 0 : 1.3, y2: d => d.type === "Outlays" ? 1 : 2.3, tip: true, title: d => d.desc + ": " + d3.format(",.0f")(d[m]) }), Plot.textX(temp2, Plot.stackX({ x: m, fill: d => d.lineitem===520 ? "black" : null, y: d => d.type === "Outlays" ? 0.5 : 1.8, text: d => d[m] > 0 ? "Deficit" : "Surplus" })), ]}); return plot; }47:T713,viewof lineitem = { let totalout = latest.filter(d => d.lineitem === 490)[0][m]; let datatab= latest. filter(d => ![140, 150, 530, 540, 510, 500].includes(d.lineitem)). map(d => ({ ...d, growth: d.ytdamt/d.priorytd -1, pctoutlays: d[m]/totalout, level: (d.seqcode.match(/\./g)||[]).length })). sort((a,b) => a.lineitem - b.lineitem); return Inputs.table(datatab, { columns: ["lineitem", "desc", "curramt", "ytdamt", "priorytd", "growth", "pctoutlays"] , width: { lineitem: 40, curramt: 100, ytdamt: 100, priorytd: 110, growth: 80, pctoutlays: 80 }, header: { desc: "Budget Line Item", lineitem: "Line", curramt: `${d3.timeFormat("%b %Y")(maxdate)} ($m)`, ytdamt: "FYTD ($m)", priorytd: "Prior FYTD ($m)", growth: "Growth", pctoutlays: htl.html`Percent of
Outlays` }, rows: 100, multiple: false, value: datatab.filter(d => d.lineitem===130)[0], format: { lineitem: d => htl.html`${d}`, curramt: d => d3.format(",.0f")(d), ytdamt: d => d3.format(",.0f")(d), priorytd: d => d3.format(",.0f")(d), growth: d => d3.format("0.0%")(d), pctoutlays: d => d3.format("0.1%")(d), desc: (d,i,a) => a[i].level ===0 || a[i].lineitem === 520 ? htl.html`${d}` : a[i].level === 1 ? htl.html`${d}` : htl.html`${d}` } }); }48:Tac0,{ let datarate = Array.from(dataitem.map(d => d.date), (v,i) => ({ date: v, value: rollsum(k)(dataitem.map(d => d.value))[i], total: rollsum(k)(total.map(d => d.value))[i] })). filter(d => d.total!=0). map(d => ({ ...d, rate: d.value/d.total })); let actval = Plot.plot({ height: 390, width: 333, marginTop: 30, marginLeft: 60, y: { tickFormat: d => d3.format(",.0f")(d/1000000/k), label: "($m/mth)" }, marks: [ Plot.ruleX(regime.map(d => d.Inauguration), { stroke: "darkgray" }), Plot.text(regime, { x: "Inauguration", dx: 5, dy: 10, textAnchor: "start", y: d3.max(datarate, d => d.value), text: "President" }), Plot.gridY(), Plot.ruleY([d3.min(datarate, d => d.value)]), Plot.lineY(datarate, { x: "date", y: "value", stroke: d3.interpolateCool(0.1) }) ]}); let pctot = Plot.plot({ height: 390, width: 333, marginTop: 30, marginLeft: 50, y: { tickFormat: d => d3.format("0.2%")(d), label: "(%)" }, marks: [ Plot.ruleX(regime.map(d => d.Inauguration), { stroke: "darkgray" }), Plot.text(regime, { x: "Inauguration", dx: 5, dy: 10, textAnchor: "start", y: d3.max(datarate, d => d.rate), text: "President" }), Plot.gridY(), Plot.ruleY([d3.min(datarate, d => d.rate)]), Plot.lineY(datarate, { x: "date", y: "rate", stroke: d3.interpolateCool(0.1) }) ]}); let pltgrowth = Plot.plot({ height: 390, width: 333, marginTop: 30, marginLeft: 50, y: { tickFormat: d => d3.format("0.1%")(d-1), label: "(%pa)" }, marks: [ Plot.gridY(), Plot.ruleX(regime.map(d => d.Inauguration), { stroke: "darkgray" }), Plot.gridY(), Plot.ruleY([1]), Plot.lineY(datarate, Plot.windowY({k: 13, reduce: "ratio", anchor: "end" }, { x: "date", y: "value", stroke: d3.interpolateWarm(0.1) })) ]}); return svg``; }49:[] 43:{"id":"f72ab12b1ea0b67c","slug":null,"title":"US Federal Government Fiscal Trends","thumbnail":"9fd4017d97c4f2291413e74a19dc01e36229ff397beb1ee733ea61708bd2ba4f","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2025-10-01T04:10:53.318Z","update_time":"$D2026-03-12T04:42:16.121Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2025-10-01T04:59:53.397Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"1e6bbbc1fea19b9b","login":"klettsch","name":"Christian Klettner","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/a2034439cf44a563da383de835ee021f6b6b0fe384e6da3aac36176d6f7b8a0a","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"Risk, finance, economic modelling, forecasting and stress testing","following":false},"version":739,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"9c99afc3bb345c32","login":"klettsch","name":"Christian Klettner","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/0d0f4aae093b36282a186ea737feb66dc7f5bb69d65e30cc5a159c34f0a77f47","tier":null,"bio":"Risk, finance, economic modelling, forecasting and stress testing","following":false}],"members":[{"type":"team","id":"1e6bbbc1fea19b9b","login":"klettsch","name":"Christian Klettner","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/a2034439cf44a563da383de835ee021f6b6b0fe384e6da3aac36176d6f7b8a0a","tier":"starter_2024","role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"9c99afc3bb345c32","login":"klettsch","name":"Christian Klettner","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/0d0f4aae093b36282a186ea737feb66dc7f5bb69d65e30cc5a159c34f0a77f47","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":true,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"US Federal Government Fiscal Trends","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# US Federal Government Fiscal Trends\n\nExtracts the latest budget data from the [US Treasury FiscalData API](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/). Uses the monthly summary data from Table 3 of [Monthly Treasury Summary](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). \n\nCalculates and plots rolling average trends of a receipt or outlay line item as a percent of total outlays. Total outlays shows the contribution of each item to the overall fiscal position. \n\nData current through to **${d3.timeFormat(\"%B %Y\")(maxdate)}**. ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":576,"value":"$45","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":285,"value":"## Current fiscal position\n\nUse the table to select a line item to view fiscal trends since 2014.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":543,"value":"viewof m = Inputs.radio(new Map([[\"Current Month\", \"curramt\"],[\"Year to Date\", \"ytdamt\"]]), \n { value: \"ytdamt\" });","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":374,"value":"$46","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":187,"value":"$47","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":356,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":320,"value":"Data sourcing: Fiscal Data API Table 3","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"baseurl = \"https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_3\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":61,"value":"total = d3.json(baseurl + `?page[size]=200&filter=line_code_nbr:eq:490`).\n then((d) => d.data.map(d => \n ({ date: new Date(d.record_date), \n desc: d.classification_desc,\n value: +d.current_month_rcpt_outly_amt})))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":193,"value":"maxdate = { \n let date = d3.max(total, d => d.date);\n return new Date(date.getFullYear(), date.getMonth(), 1); \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"latest = d3.json(baseurl + `?page[size]=200&filter=record_date:gte:${d3.timeFormat(\"%Y-%m-%d\")(maxdate)}`).\n then((d) => d.data.map(d => \n ({ date: new Date(d.record_date), \n desc: d.classification_desc,\n lineitem: +d.line_code_nbr, \n seqcode: d.sequence_number_cd, \n curramt: +d.current_month_rcpt_outly_amt/1000000, \n ytdamt: +d.current_fytd_rcpt_outly_amt/1000000, \n priorytd: +d.prior_fytd_rcpt_outly_amt/1000000 }) \n )); ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":296,"value":"dataitem = d3.json(baseurl + `?page[size]=200&filter=line_code_nbr:eq:${lineitem.lineitem}`).\n then((d) => d.data.map(d => \n ({ date: new Date(d.record_date), \n desc: d.classification_desc,\n value: +d.current_month_rcpt_outly_amt})))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":322,"value":"Rolling (moving average) sum function","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":54,"value":"function rollsum(k) { \n return (x) => x.map((d,i,a) => d3.sum(a.slice(i-k+1, i+1))); \n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":325,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":636,"value":"regime = [{ President: \"Obama\", Inauguration: new Date(\"2009-01-20\") },\n { President: \"Obama\", Inauguration: new Date(\"2013-01-20\") },\n { President: \"Trump\", Inauguration: new Date(\"2017-01-20\") },\n { President: \"Biden\", Inauguration: new Date(\"2021-01-20\") },\n { President: \"Trump\", Inauguration: new Date(\"2025-01-20\") }].\n filter(d => d.Inauguration > new Date(\"2014-10-01\"))","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W49","stdlib":"1"}} 44:"$43:body"