45:["$","title",null,{"children":"Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de l'Aviron | antoinehnz | Observable"}] 4d:[{"id":"32ded968e9b115d1973e8d719a6acca4c460a97f83968f22fccd3fdf1fa212aefba1de1aa7cefab4ea4720c4db609690fb15cd7aa54736edb98e20b0536d67b8","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/32ded968e9b115d1973e8d719a6acca4c460a97f83968f22fccd3fdf1fa212aefba1de1aa7cefab4ea4720c4db609690fb15cd7aa54736edb98e20b0536d67b8","name":"Aviron.PNG","type":"image/png","lastModified":1617803259906.918,"size":43979}] 49:{"id":"a12799b3a6fe2c4a","slug":"modele-etude-de-laviron","title":"Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de l'Aviron","thumbnail":"8d0d07afb084abfe90fcb8b8c4e7d3c6d549f265a579e5cf2b6693ac47c96625","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2021-04-07T13:01:48.108Z","update_time":"$D2021-05-25T08:53:20.896Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2021-04-07T13:50:11.893Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":{"id":"ab65c645affd6b83","slug":"compte_rendu_natation","title":"Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de la natation","owner":{"id":"28c93ca135bc4b52","login":"antoinehnz","name":""}},"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"28c93ca135bc4b52","login":"antoinehnz","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/38f53652d662ff38cf8f3312c897b4a1826f20df3401f2ecd6dee15b03d9dbd9","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false},"version":378,"publish_version":378,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"fd2bfb99bf56c2e5","login":"antoinehnz","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/38f53652d662ff38cf8f3312c897b4a1826f20df3401f2ecd6dee15b03d9dbd9","tier":null,"bio":"","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"fd2bfb99bf56c2e5","login":"antoinehnz","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/38f53652d662ff38cf8f3312c897b4a1826f20df3401f2ecd6dee15b03d9dbd9","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":{"id":"395c810906b95fd8","slug":"pe-77-etude-des-jo-2021","title":"[PE 77] Étude des JO 2021","owner":{"id":"28c93ca135bc4b52","login":"antoinehnz","name":""}},"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de l'Aviron","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Estimations de chances de médailles en vue des JO de Tokyo : Étude de ${Article}${Choix_Sport}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":7,"value":"md`

\nNous présentons ici le travail d'un groupe d'étudiants de l'Ecole Centrale de Lyon, en ce qui concerne ${Article} ${Choix_Sport}, pour les Jeux Olympiques de 2021. Nous avons cherché à analyser les dernières performances des différents athlètes, français et internationnaux, dans différentes disciplines, afin d'estimer le nombre de médailles françaises aux Jeux. Voici ci-dessous notre analyse pour ${Article}${Choix_Sport}.\n

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":19,"value":"md` ---\n## Tour d'horizon de nos estimations de chances de médaille pour toutes les disciplines des JO de Tokyo`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":46,"value":"vegalite({\n \"data\": {values: data_gdoc1},\n \"layer\": [ {\n \"mark\": {\"type\" : \"bar\", \"color\" : \"#D9DDDC\"},\n \"encoding\": {\n \"x\": {\"field\": \"Sport\" , \"type\": \"nominal\"},\n \"y\": {aggregate: \"count\", field: \"*\", type: \"quantitative\",\"title\" : \"Médailles possibles\"}}},\n {\n \"mark\": {\"type\" : \"bar\", \"color\" : \"#4d4f4f\"},\n \"encoding\": {\n \"x\": {\"field\": \"Sport\" , \"type\": \"nominal\"},\n \"y\": {\"field\": 'Evaluation au'.concat(' ', \"31/03/2021\") ,\"type\": \"quantitative\", \"aggregate\": \"sum\",\"title\" : \"Estimation\"},\n \"color\": {\n \"condition\": {test: {\"field\" : \"Sport\", \"equal\" : Choix_Sport}, value: \"#4C78A8\" },\n value: \"#4d4f4f\"}\n } }]\n },\n \"invalidation\",\n \"visibility\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":65,"value":"md`\nSur ce graphe on trouve :
\n* **Le total de podiums dans le sport**
\n* Notre estimation pour la France dans le sports (autre que ${Article}${Choix_Sport})
\n* Notre estimation pour la France en ${Choix_Sport} \n

\n\n**À Noter** : Pour chaque discipline, on a établit une chance de podium entre 0 et 1. Ici on représente la somme de ces notes. Il faut donc voir cette valeur comme une valeur basse.
\nNotre estimation la plus haute est la suivante : ** ${Nmax} podiums** pour la France \n\nSi vous souhaitez voir nos autres estimations, notamment dans les autres sports, je vous invite à visiter [cette page](https://next.observablehq.com/@antoinehnz/visualisation-des-donnees-de-jo)

On cherche ici à représenter en détail nos estimations dans les différentes disciplines qui composent la natation.
\nFaute de temps, nous nous sommes concentré que sur certaines disciplines, nous obligeant à faire un choix, et donc laissant possiblement certaines disciplines importantes de côté.

Dans cette partie, nous avons essayé de séléctionner parmi les différents athlètes qualifiés ou en voie de se qualifier les favoris français.
\nEncore une fois, nous avons dû faire un choix parmi les disciplines, et donc parmi les athlètes à analyser.\n

\nAfin d'arriver à ces conclusions nous avons appliqué notre méthode d'analyse de donnée. Vous pouvez retrouver le détail de cette méthode sur [cette page](https://observablehq.com/@antoinehnz/presentation-de-notre-methode-danalyse-de-donnees)
\n\n

\nOn compare ainsi les résultats des favoris de toute nationalité en ${Choix_Sport}. Ceux-ci ont été choisi selon les résultats des derniers évènements majeurs
\nVoici le détail de l'application : \n

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":349,"value":"FileAttachment(\"Aviron.PNG\").image()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":339,"value":"md`Sur ce tableau on trouve :
\n* La colonne score qui donne le score brut obtenu par la formule
\n* La colonne pourcentage qui donne la part de l’athlète considéré dans le score cumulé.
\n* La colonne classement qui donne le classement alors établie avec la méthode
\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":352,"value":"md`### Conclusion`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":357,"value":"md`On peut alors, prudemment, tirer les conclusions suivantes :\n* **En M2x**, le bateau français se place dans un peloton de tête, au coude à coude avec ses concurrents et a donc une belle chance de médaille\n* **En W2x**, la discipline semble dominée par la Nouvelle Zélande, et ainsi la chance de médaille française est conditionné à l’état de forme des autres favoris \n* **En LW2x**, deux nations dominent, la France est loin derrière, et donc voit ses chances de médailles réduites, mais tout peut arriver.\n\nCes trois conclusions pourraient être confirmées par l’étude de plus de concurrents, afin de dresser un portrait plus large de la discipline. \n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":368,"value":"md` ---`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":43,"value":"md` ---\n## Détails Techniques`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":272,"value":"md`### Paramètres clés`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"Choix_Sport = \"Aviron\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":275,"value":"Article = \"l'\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":297,"value":"DateEstimation = '31/03/2021'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":280,"value":"md` ---`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":238,"value":"Nmax ={ return db.exec(`\n SELECT COUNT(*) FROM data_gdoc1\n WHERE Sport = \"${Choix_Sport}\" AND\n NOT([Evaluation au ${DateEstimation}] = \"0\")`)[0][\"COUNT(*)\"]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"url_gdoc = 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names;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":118,"value":"data_gdoc4 = {\n let names = [];\n const spreadsheet = await d3\n .tsv(url_gdoc4)\n .then(data => data.forEach(d => names.push(d)));\n return names;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":54,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\", \"d3-sankey@0.12\", \"d3-array@^2.2\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":178,"value":"alasql = require(\"alasql\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":181,"value":"db = {\n let db = new alasql.Database();\n db.exec('CREATE TABLE data_gdoc1');\n db.tables.data_gdoc1.data = data_gdoc1;\n return db\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":184,"value":"chart_data2 = {\n let sql = `\n SELECT Athletes,Discipline, [Evaluation au ${DateEstimation}] AS Confiance\n FROM data_gdoc1 \n WHERE Sport = \"${Choix_Sport}\" AND [Evaluation au ${DateEstimation}] > 0\n ORDER BY [Evaluation au ${DateEstimation}] DESC`\n \n\n return db.exec(sql)\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":193,"value":"import {table} from \"@tmcw/tables/2\"//import {table} from \"@tmcw/tables@444\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":56,"value":"vegalite = require(\"@observablehq/vega-lite@0.2\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":60,"value":"colorVega = 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