29:null 2a:["$","title",null,{"children":"Optimal Bet Sizing: Kelly Criterion | johannbokchoy | Observable"}] 2f:T4eb,data2 = { play; var d = [] var bankroll = startingBankroll var optimalBankroll = startingBankroll var bankrupt = false var optimalBankrupt = false d.push({Round: 0, Bankroll: bankroll, Strategy: "Your Bet " + "(" + bet.toFixed(2) + "x)"}) d.push({Round: 0, Bankroll: optimalBankroll, Strategy: "Optimal Bet " + "(" + optimalBet + "x)"}) for (let i = 1; i <= numberOfRounds + 1; ++i) { yield Promises.delay(500 - (simulationSpeed * 5), d) if (bankrupt) { d.push({Round: i, Bankroll: bankroll, Strategy: "Your Bet " + "(" + bet.toFixed(2) + "x)", Bankroll: bankroll, Bankrupt: "Not enough to bet!"}) } else { bankroll = strategy(bankroll) if (bankroll * bet < 0.01) { bankrupt = true } d.push({Round: i, Bankroll: bankroll, Strategy: "Your Bet " + "(" + bet.toFixed(2) + "x)"}) } if (optimalBankrupt) { d.push({Round: i, Bankroll: optimalBankroll, Strategy: "Bankrupt"}) } else { optimalBankroll = optimalStrategy(optimalBankroll) if (optimalBankroll <= 0.01 && optimalBankroll * optimalBet < 0.01) { optimalBankrupt = true } d.push({Round: i, Bankroll: optimalBankroll, Strategy: "Optimal Bet " + "(" + optimalBet + "x)"}) } } }30:[] 2d:{"id":"4cc98b107ae10e21","slug":"optimal-bet-sizing-kelly-criterion","title":"Optimal Bet Sizing: Kelly Criterion","thumbnail":"cd9f82491accf0b0364c61aa62a0947cedf7b0437faeef86cdf5c1845be3a328","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2022-02-28T00:11:49.305Z","update_time":"$D2022-03-15T06:43:00.587Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2022-03-01T05:13:50.775Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"de12392327f8f8a4","login":"johannbokchoy","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/8fdb66f3d4900a84c133061559a0b3b3f70d173126e7e1876f2b30ff37080a95","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1268,"publish_version":1268,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"e775dd38d365dcdb","login":"johannbokchoy","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/8fdb66f3d4900a84c133061559a0b3b3f70d173126e7e1876f2b30ff37080a95","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"5b11d45a113f1cd1","login":"dewey3k","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/37415362?v=4","tier":null,"role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"fad496e588a78eb2","login":"diane-du","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/73037877?v=4","tier":null,"role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"e775dd38d365dcdb","login":"johannbokchoy","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/8fdb66f3d4900a84c133061559a0b3b3f70d173126e7e1876f2b30ff37080a95","tier":null,"role":"editor"},{"type":"individual","id":"e1d26838292a2ed2","login":"lanidang","name":"Lani Dang","avatar_url":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/67180478?v=4","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Optimal Bet Sizing: Kelly Criterion","cells":[{"id":181,"value":"# Optimal Bet Sizing: Kelly Criterion","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":487,"value":"*by Johann Choy, Aaron Tou, Lani Dang, Diane Du*","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":207,"value":"## Flipping a Coin","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":210,"value":"Let's consider flipping a coin. In this coin flipping scenario, the probability of flipping heads is 60% and the probability of flipping tails is 40%. You place a bet before each flip and the goal is to reach $200. Let's try:","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":813,"value":"viewof betProportion = Inputs.range([0, 1], {value: 0.5, step: 0.01, label: \"Bet Proportion\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":799,"value":"bankrollText = html`

Bankroll: $ ${bankroll.toFixed(2)}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1097,"value":"mutable betResult = null\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1157,"value":"mutable RoundNumber = html`

Round: ${currentRound - 1}`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":756,"value":"viewof wager = html`

${Object.assign(html`