2e:null 2f:["$","title",null,{"children":"Covid-19 petition clusters | Louis Goddard | Observable"}] 34:[{"id":"0a26a2cd8a1520b2a788433206d4ddf36afb4a3f99ee4546d82c2237180bf488a61ac2a1c7a2cef9ee6da7c325304cfc9bb6fb91187e6b63af089e4e3c4157fb","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/0a26a2cd8a1520b2a788433206d4ddf36afb4a3f99ee4546d82c2237180bf488a61ac2a1c7a2cef9ee6da7c325304cfc9bb6fb91187e6b63af089e4e3c4157fb","name":"sape23dt7mid2020parliconsyoaestimatesunformatted.xlsx","type":"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet","lastModified":1640797578064.567,"size":963403},{"id":"2908d9fd1c34a39abbde709c634fc685e77a0e57b7958bccdc4d946fa9bd607a6218e5b72b38ebb8e953a53b06db662c1c0fe0c8b5d2a2a5b7f015850318cba4","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/2908d9fd1c34a39abbde709c634fc685e77a0e57b7958bccdc4d946fa9bd607a6218e5b72b38ebb8e953a53b06db662c1c0fe0c8b5d2a2a5b7f015850318cba4","name":"Westminster_Parliamentary_Constituencies_(December_2019)_Boundaries_UK_BUC.geojson","type":"application/geo+json","lastModified":1640817427053.477,"size":3199490},{"id":"3fc328494a034ac43869777745704e042ee8c2059f2b0c48bad5a2f05b9a7f8b5a941768738e3c38691d567cd06b46202b2dad6bc6bd5dda40784a0ec770ebe7","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/3fc328494a034ac43869777745704e042ee8c2059f2b0c48bad5a2f05b9a7f8b5a941768738e3c38691d567cd06b46202b2dad6bc6bd5dda40784a0ec770ebe7","name":"localauthorityandparliamentaryregistrationsandattainers.xlsx","type":"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet","lastModified":1640900265355.229,"size":168135}] 32:{"id":"d61ed2fba08c5ad1","slug":"covid-petition-clusters","title":"Covid-19 petition clusters","thumbnail":"f6c7ea11bed58f645b938b599d127860a35d03bfc48fbc143a89a3e0878fc356","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2021-12-29T17:06:18.064Z","update_time":"$D2022-01-05T16:22:42.986Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2021-12-30T16:09:10.876Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":{"id":"471a2a7337480f3c","slug":"covid-petitions","title":"Covid-19 petitions vs. Brexit vote","owner":{"id":"ee7260255077c9b9","login":"ltrgoddard","name":"Louis Goddard"}},"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"ee7260255077c9b9","login":"ltrgoddard","name":"Louis Goddard","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1377626138082cc67856d07ec28bd2c084e33cce0d8c3a75b0c15181ac05970c","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":2426,"publish_version":2426,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"947c7b1fe1e9c407","login":"ltrgoddard","name":"Louis Goddard","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1377626138082cc67856d07ec28bd2c084e33cce0d8c3a75b0c15181ac05970c","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"947c7b1fe1e9c407","login":"ltrgoddard","name":"Louis Goddard","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/1377626138082cc67856d07ec28bd2c084e33cce0d8c3a75b0c15181ac05970c","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Covid-19 petition clusters","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Covid-19 petition clusters","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1917,"value":"This notebook (roughly) implements the methodology from [Clark, Lomax and Morris 2017](https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-017-0113-9), a paper which uses [e-petitions data](https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions) and a technique called [*k*-means clustering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-means_clustering) to sort UK parliamentary constituencies into groups. Instead of looking at all petitions, this analysis focuses on petitions about Covid-19.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1171,"value":"viewof map = {\n const container = html`

`;\n yield container;\n const map = container.value = new mapboxgl.Map({\n container,\n style: \"mapbox://styles/mapbox/light-v10\",\n center: [-1.55, 52.96],\n zoom: 4.8\n });\n\n map.on(\"load\", () => {\n map.addSource(\"constituencies\", {\n type: \"geojson\",\n data: constituencies\n });\n map.addLayer({\n id: \"clusters\",\n type: \"fill\",\n source: \"constituencies\",\n paint: {\n \"fill-color\": {\n property: \"cluster\",\n stops: colour_scheme.map((c, i) => ([i, c]))\n },\n \"fill-opacity\": .3\n }\n});\n });\n invalidation.then(() => map.remove());\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2110,"value":"Legend(d3.scaleOrdinal(Array(n_clusters).fill().map((e, i) => i.toString()), colour_scheme), {\n title: \"Cluster\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1262,"value":"viewof n_clusters = Inputs.range([2, 10], { label: \"Number of clusters to generate\", step: 1, value: 2 })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2035,"value":"viewof n_petitions = Inputs.range([50, 1000], { label: \"Number of petitions to include (most popular first)\", step: 50, value: 200 })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2005,"value":"viewof petition_years = Inputs.checkbox(\n new Map([[\"2020\", 2020], [\"2021\", 2021]]),\n { label: \"Year of petitions to include\", value: [2020, 2021] })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1898,"value":"viewof excluded_petitions = Inputs.text({ label: \"Petition IDs to exclude (comma-separated list)\", value: \"331453\" })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2172,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2221,"value":"## Show me some petitions!","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1497,"value":"viewof selected_cluster = Inputs.radio(\n Object.keys(petitions_by_cluster[0]).slice(2),\n { label: \"Show five most characteristic petitions\", value: \"Cluster 0\" })","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1581,"value":"{\n const cluster_id = parseInt(selected_cluster.split(\" \").pop());\n const petitions =\n `

\n ${d.action}\n

`;\n yield html`${petitions}`\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2205,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2161,"value":"## Correlation with Brexit vote?","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2211,"value":"The scatterplot below shows how well each cluster correlates with the Leave vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum, taken from Chris Hanretty's [revised estimates](https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d#.ajycmmhha).","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2087,"value":"Plot.plot({\n marks: [\n Plot.frame(),\n Plot.dot(chart_data, {\n x: \"cluster\",\n y: \"leave\"\n })\n ],\n x: {\n domain:\n d3.sort(\n d3.rollup(chart_data, v => d3.mean(v, d => d.leave), d => d.cluster),\n d => -d[1])\n .map(d => d[0])\n }\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1963,"value":"

","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1569,"value":"## Appendix","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2092,"value":"chart_data = signature_matrix_tagged\n .map(d => ({\n ...d,\n cluster: d.cluster.toString(),\n leave:\n (brexit.find(b => d.ons_code === b.ons_code) ||\n { leave: 0 })\n .leave\n }))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1533,"value":"colour_scheme = d3.schemeCategory10","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1384,"value":"petitions_by_cluster =\n d3.zip(\n d3.transpose(\n signature_matrix_tagged\n .map(d => d.signatures_freq))\n .map(d => d3.mean(d)),\n d3.transpose(\n [...d3.group(signature_matrix_tagged, d => d.cluster)]\n .map(d => d3.transpose(d[1].map(d => d.signatures_freq))\n .map(d => d3.mean(d)))))\n .map((p, p_i) => ({\n petition_id: petitions[p_i].id,\n action: petitions[p_i].attributes.action,\n ...Object.fromEntries(\n p[1].map((c, c_i) => ([\n `Cluster ${c_i}`,\n p[0] - c\n ]))\n )\n }))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1092,"value":"constituencies =\n FileAttachment(\"Westminster_Parliamentary_Constituencies_(December_2019)_Boundaries_UK_BUC.geojson\")\n .json()\n .then(d => ({\n ...d,\n features: d\n .features\n .map(f => ({\n type: f.type,\n properties: {\n ...f.properties,\n cluster: (\n signature_matrix_tagged\n .find(c => f.properties.pcon19cd === c.ons_code) || { cluster: null })\n .cluster\n },\n geometry: f.geometry\n }))\n .filter(f => /^E|W/.test(f.properties.pcon19cd))\n }))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1280,"value":"signature_matrix_tagged = d3.sort(\n [...d3.group(\n signature_matrix\n .map((s, i) => ({\n ...s,\n cluster: clusters.idxs[i]\n })),\n d => d.cluster)]\n .flatMap((c, i) => c[1].flatMap(e => ({...e, cluster: i}))))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":706,"value":"clusters = skmeans.default(signature_matrix.map(d => d.signatures_freq), n_clusters)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":884,"value":"signature_matrix = voters\n .map(v => {\n const constituency_signatures = signatures_filtered.filter(d => d.ons_code === v.ons_code);\n const signatures_freq =\n [...d3.union(\n signatures_filtered\n .map(p => p.petition_id))\n ]\n .map(d => constituency_signatures.find(s => s.petition_id === d) || { signature_count: 0 })\n .map(d => d.signature_count / v.voters)\n return {\n ons_code: v.ons_code,\n name: v.name,\n signatures_freq: signatures_freq\n }\n })","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2423,"value":"signatures_filtered = signatures.filter(p => allowed_petitions.includes(p.petition_id))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2394,"value":"allowed_petitions = [...d3.rollup(\n signatures, v => d3.deviation(v, d => d.signature_count),\n d => d.petition_id)]\n .filter(d => d[1] <= max_sdev).map(d => d[0])","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2346,"value":"max_sdev = d3.quantile(\n [...d3.rollup(\n signatures, v => d3.deviation(v, d => d.signature_count),\n d => d.petition_id)]\n .map(d => d[1]), \n .9)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":665,"value":"signatures =\n Promise.all(\n petitions\n .map(d =>\n fetch(`https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/${d.id}.json`)\n .then(r => r.json())\n ))\n .then(d => d\n .flatMap(p => p\n .data\n .attributes\n .signatures_by_constituency\n .map(s => ({\n petition_id: p.data.id,\n ons_code: s.ons_code,\n signature_count: s.signature_count\n }))\n ))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":797,"value":"petitions =\n Promise.all(\n Array(n_petitions / 50)\n .fill()\n .map((e, i) =>\n fetch(`https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions.json?page=${i + 1}&state=all&topic=covid-19`)\n .then(r => r.json())\n .then(d => d.data)\n ))\n .then(p => p\n .flat()\n .filter(p => !excluded_petitions.split(\",\").includes(p.id.toString()))\n .filter(p => petition_years.includes((new Date(p.attributes.opened_at)).getFullYear()))\n )","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":130,"value":"population = FileAttachment(\"sape23dt7mid2020parliconsyoaestimatesunformatted.xlsx\")\n .xlsx()\n .then(w => w.sheet(\"Mid-2020 Persons\", { range: \"A6:C578\" }))\n .then(s => s\n .map(d => ({\n ons_code: d[\"A\"],\n name: d[\"B\"],\n population: d[\"C\"]\n }))\n )","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2061,"value":"voters = FileAttachment(\"localauthorityandparliamentaryregistrationsandattainers.xlsx\")\n .xlsx()\n .then(w => w.sheet(\"Table 2\", { range: \"A3:F657\" }))\n .then(s => s\n .map(d => ({\n ons_code: d.A,\n name: d.B,\n voters: d.F\n }))\n )","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2085,"value":"brexit = fetch(\"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wTK5dV2_YjCMsUYlwg0l48uWWf44sKgG8uFVMv5OWlA/export?format=csv\")\n .then(r => r.text())\n .then(d => d3.csvParse(d)\n .map(d => ({\n ons_code: d.PCON11CD,\n leave: parseFloat(d[\"Figure to use\"])\n }))\n )","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":640,"value":"skmeans = import(\"https://cdn.skypack.dev/skmeans\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2088,"value":"import { Plot } from \"@fil/plot-regression\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2112,"value":"import { Legend } from \"@d3/color-legend\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1161,"value":"mapboxgl = {\n const gl = await require(\"mapbox-gl@1\");\n if (!gl.accessToken) {\n gl.accessToken = \"pk.eyJ1IjoiZ2xvYmFsd2l0bmVzczIiLCJhIjoiY2tvYTBucTRkMmt6NTJ3bHAzaW1yZzVoZiJ9.EpQeIN2d3kpEl0yEDSZXcQ\";\n const href = await require.resolve(\"mapbox-gl@1/dist/mapbox-gl.css\");\n document.head.appendChild(html``);\n }\n return gl;\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 33:"$32:body"