data analyst • mediapart
Intentions de vote dans les sondages
import { sondages, regions, desc } from '@taniki/regionales2021-donnees-nsppolls'
import { resultats, desc as descBrice } from '@taniki/regionales2021-resultats-premiertour'
regions
regionSondages = sondages.filter(i => i.region == regionSelect)
premierTour = tourSondages(regionSondages, 'Premier tour')
Inputs.table(secondTour)
secondTour = tourSondages(regionSondages, 'Deuxième tour')
tourSondages = (sondages, tour) => {
return sondages
.map(s => [s, s.tours.find(t => t.tour == tour)])
.map(([s, x]) => x?.hypotheses.map(h => ({sondage: s.id, date: s.fin_enquete, n: h.sous_echantillon, ...h})))
.filter(r => r != undefined)
.flat()
}
t1TetesListe = tetesListeRegion('Premier tour')
tetesListeRegion = (tour) => {
let data = [ ...new Set(
tourSondages(regionSondages, tour)
.map(x => x.tetes_liste)
.flat()
.map(t => t.tete_liste)
.filter(t => t != null)
)]
.map(t => [t, candidates.find(c => t.toLowerCase() == `${c['Prénom candidat']} ${c['Nom candidat']}`.toLowerCase() && c['Tête de Liste'] == 'Oui')])
.filter(t => t[1] != undefined )
.map(t => ({ 'name': t[0], info: t[1] }))
return data
}
t2TetesListe = tetesListeRegion('Deuxième tour')
// intentions = (sondages) =>
t1Intentions = premierTour
.map(t => t.tetes_liste.map(tl => ({sondage: t.sondage, date: t.date, n: t.sous_echantillon, hypothese: t.hypothese, ...tl})))
.flat()
.filter(t => t1TetesListe.map(t => t.name).includes(t.tete_liste))
.sort((a,b) => b.date.localeCompare(a.date))
t1Moyennes = [ ...d3.group(t1Intentions, i => i['tete_liste'])]
.map(t => {
let n = d3.sum(t[1], i => i.n)
let p = d3.sum(t[1], i => i.intentions * i.n) / n
let Z = jStat.normal.inv((1+0.95)/2, 0, 1)
let e = Z * Math.sqrt(((p/100) * (1 - (p/100))) / n)
return {
name: t[0],
mean: p,
n,
inf: d3.sum(t[1], i => i.erreur_inf * i.n) / d3.sum(t[1], i => i.n),
sup: d3.sum(t[1], i => i.erreur_sup * i.n) / d3.sum(t[1], i => i.n),
inf2: p - e*100,
sup2: p + e*100,
}
})
Inputs.table(t2Intentions)
t2Intentions = secondTour
.map(t => t.tetes_liste.map(tl => ({sondage: t.sondage, date: t.date, n: t.sous_echantillon, hypothese: t.hypothese, ...tl})))
.flat()
.filter(t => t2TetesListe.map(t => t.name).includes(t.tete_liste))
.sort((a,b) => b.date.localeCompare(a.date))
Inputs.table(t2Moyennes)
t2Moyennes = [ ...d3.group(t2Intentions, i => i['tete_liste'])]
.map(t => {
let n = d3.sum(t[1], i => i.n)
let p = d3.sum(t[1], i => i.intentions * i.n) / n
let Z = jStat.normal.inv((1+0.95)/2, 0, 1)
let e = Z * Math.sqrt(((p/100) * (1 - (p/100))) / n)
return {
name: t[0],
mean: p,
n,
inf: d3.sum(t[1], i => i.erreur_inf * i.n) / d3.sum(t[1], i => i.n),
sup: d3.sum(t[1], i => i.erreur_sup * i.n) / d3.sum(t[1], i => i.n),
inf2: p - e*100,
sup2: p + e*100,
}
})
import { raw as candidates, desc as descMinInt } from '@taniki/regionales2021-donnees-minint'
nuance = (c, name = 'tete_liste') => {
let found = candidates.find(x => `${x['Prénom candidat']} ${x['Nom candidat']}`.toLowerCase() == c[name].toLowerCase())
if (found) return found['Nuance candidat']
else return '???'
}
import {candidateColors, desc as descColors } from '@taniki/regionales2021-colors'
jStat = require('jstat')
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