2b:null 2c:["$","title",null,{"children":"Bitcoin fractal bubbles | Toph Tucker | Observable"}] 31:[{"id":"d1cc27f556a61cb5ebb2c95f9c79b269b6d151cbbae56fe444513120b51790086028869d14ab52f1c85bb9e941842f96c524f07fed470128bd42244534a8fb29","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/d1cc27f556a61cb5ebb2c95f9c79b269b6d151cbbae56fe444513120b51790086028869d14ab52f1c85bb9e941842f96c524f07fed470128bd42244534a8fb29","name":"btc-2024-12-11.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1733957674818.831,"size":107719},{"id":"2966131ab8702a39e5dc5b40537c5e773e9bb097025ad205b5ccca89df6eb0673851bcf6622ee61fcf216084b9cf56c82211caa2a0d5c50bb5c1754225fb97d8","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/2966131ab8702a39e5dc5b40537c5e773e9bb097025ad205b5ccca89df6eb0673851bcf6622ee61fcf216084b9cf56c82211caa2a0d5c50bb5c1754225fb97d8","name":"Bitcoin Historical Data.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1733949779234.077,"size":105692},{"id":"6f6f5796b49c71cae85088af7c3687743598ff3f00315b9d3b91b26840abe12cab7ea8ace75a6d2551683f3492a326f6abbc6d327862773bbebf51a12bf332d5","href":"https://static.observableusercontent.com/files/6f6f5796b49c71cae85088af7c3687743598ff3f00315b9d3b91b26840abe12cab7ea8ace75a6d2551683f3492a326f6abbc6d327862773bbebf51a12bf332d5","name":"btc-2021-03-09.csv","type":"text/csv","lastModified":1615422403236.615,"size":81974}] 2f:{"id":"67d33d8a1b4915bc","slug":"bitcoin-fractal-bubbles","title":"Bitcoin fractal bubbles","thumbnail":"0f3254b47bde3c7f269192e5544d99c99bc952b1127696d2bf64b0892b86050f","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2019-04-09T00:01:51.000Z","update_time":"$D2025-01-27T12:42:24.084Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2019-04-09T03:11:10.665Z","fork":false,"stars":17,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"97290e936c339d8e","login":"tophtucker","name":"Toph Tucker","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3706c31a8f9c59bb716c022c04b9c073144cd1368b78ac85f49139be6c93c34e","tier":"pro_2024"},"version":487,"publish_version":null,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"0bb2842b01e0c652","login":"tophtucker","name":"Toph Tucker","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3706c31a8f9c59bb716c022c04b9c073144cd1368b78ac85f49139be6c93c34e","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"0bb2842b01e0c652","login":"tophtucker","name":"Toph Tucker","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/3706c31a8f9c59bb716c022c04b9c073144cd1368b78ac85f49139be6c93c34e","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"subscribed":null,"forks":5,"collection":{"id":"ee48d2d87f751f74","slug":"sketches","title":"Sketches","owner":{"id":"97290e936c339d8e","login":"tophtucker","name":"Toph Tucker"}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"Bitcoin fractal bubbles","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# Bitcoin fractal bubbles\n\nThe self-similarity of the Bitcoin chart makes it hard to talk about in terms of discrete “bubbles” or anything like that. Like, how many would you say there’ve been? The shape recurs at all scales! Albeit intensifying.\n\nHere’s every Bitcoin peak, scaled by prominence, with each rendered on its own scale so it doesn’t get dwarfed by the exponential growth since then.\n\nInspired in part by [topographic prominence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topographic_prominence) and [this graphic I did for Businessweek](https://twitter.com/bizweekgraphics/status/438351316046213121). See also [animated version](https://next.observablehq.com/@tophtucker/bitcoin-fractal-bubbles-looping).`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":53,"value":"chart = svg``","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"md`**Update April 9, 2019**: God I love Observable: [here’s @Fil’s version with log scale](https://observablehq.com/d/6c604340e2baf5ea). Diffs-as-blog-comments are a lot more fun than the usual comments! I did think about it, but I think the exponential-dwarfing is itself an important feature that’s important to preserve; I wanted to try to bridge the ways most people would’ve seen the chart at various times over history.\n\n**Update March 10, 2021**: Updated data. Looks more bunched up recently, but the last big peak will move to the right if it keeps hitting new highs.\n\n**Update December 10, 2024**: I want to record that Matt Challacombe [suggested](https://x.com/MattChallacombe/status/1115789562763251712) computing a [Hurst parameter](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.03746), which seems like a great idea.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":417,"value":"md`---\n## Appendix`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":11,"value":"data = FileAttachment(\"btc-2024-12-11.csv\").csv({typed: true})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":28,"value":"peaks = getPeaks(data).filter(d => d.length > 1)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":99,"value":"scaledPeaks = peaks.map(data => {\n const radius = Math.floor(data.length / 2)\n const summit = data[radius]\n const scaledRadius = r(radius)\n let x\n if (data[0] === undefined) {\n x = d3.scaleTime()\n .domain([summit.date, data[data.length - 1].date])\n .range([0, scaledRadius])\n } else {\n x = d3.scaleTime()\n .domain([data[0].date, summit.date])\n .range([-scaledRadius, 0])\n }\n const y = d3.scaleLinear()\n .domain(d3.extent(data.filter(d => d).map(d => d.value)))\n .range([scaledRadius * 0.4, -scaledRadius * 0.4])\n return {data, radius, summit, x, y}\n}).sort((a, b) => b.data.length - a.data.length)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":26,"value":"getPeaks = data => {\n const peaks = []\n data.forEach((d, i, arr) => {\n const peak = [d]\n for (let radius = 1; radius < arr.length / 2; radius++) {\n const next = arr[i + radius]\n const prev = arr[i - radius]\n const nextIsLower = !next || next.value < d.value\n const prevIsLower = !prev || prev.value < d.value\n if (nextIsLower && prevIsLower) {\n peak.push(next)\n peak.unshift(prev)\n } else {\n break;\n }\n }\n peaks.push(peak)\n })\n return peaks\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":109,"value":"height = width * 0.7","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":115,"value":"h = height / 3","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":266,"value":"marginTop = 24","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":408,"value":"marginRight = 30","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":150,"value":"r = d3.scaleLinear()\n .domain(d3.extent(peaks.map(d => Math.floor(d.length / 2))))\n .range([1, width / 7])","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":101,"value":"x = d3\n .scaleTime()\n .domain(d3.extent(data.map(d => d.date)))\n .range([0, width - marginRight])","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":106,"value":"y = d3.scaleLinear()\n .domain(d3.extent(data.map(d => d.value)))\n .range([h, marginTop])","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":203,"value":"dx = d3.scaleLog()\n .domain(d3.extent(peaks.map(d => d.length)))\n .range([height, h + r.range()[1] / 3])","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":111,"value":"line = d3.line()\n .x(d => x(d.date))\n .y(d => y(d.value))\n .defined(d => d)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":67,"value":"randColor = () => `hsl(${360 * Math.random()}, 50%, 50%)`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":60,"value":"html``","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":252,"value":"formatDate = d3.timeFormat(\"%B %Y\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":254,"value":"formatValue = d3.format(\"$,.0f\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":480,"value":"Merging different historical price sources…","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":444,"value":"bitcoinHistoricalData = FileAttachment(\"Bitcoin Historical Data.csv\").csv()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":450,"value":"bitcoinHistoricalData\n .map((d) => ({\n date: d3.utcParse(\"%m/%d/%Y\")(d.Date),\n value: Number(d.Price.replace(\",\", \"\"))\n }))\n .sort((a, b) => d3.ascending(a.date, b.date))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":482,"value":"To-do:\n- Draw from peak until max drawdown, to emphasize the psychological point that it has been X% off its highs many, many times?","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W31","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 30:"$2f:body"