2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Covid Individual Event Risk Calculator v0.2 | chonghorizons | Observable"}] 32:T18b2,{ let situationsAndInputs = { "Office Work 40hrs/week": { SqFtRoom: 2000, heightFt: 8, numberOfPeopleInSpace: 8, percentImmune: 0.12, activity: "Sitting Quietly (2 Quanta/hr)", emitterKidsOrAdult: "adults", emitterMaskEfficiency: 0.25, inhalationMaskEfficiency: 0.25, timeMinutes: 480, Repetitions: 10, percentCurrentlyInfected: 0.03, ventilation: 3.0, emitterMultiplier:1e5, notes: "40 hours a week and 10 days in 2 weeks. In person. Please adjust parameters below to match your situation." }, "Visit Friend (once)": { SqFtRoom: 500, heightFt: 8, numberOfPeopleInSpace: 2, percentImmune: 0.12, activity: "Talking (25 Quanta/hr)", emitterKidsOrAdult: "adults", emitterMaskEfficiency: 0.25, inhalationMaskEfficiency: 0.25, timeMinutes: 60, Repetitions: 1, percentCurrentlyInfected: 0.03, ventilation: 3.0, emitterMultiplier:1e5, notes: "one 60 minute visit, both wearing masks. Indoors in a large kitchen. Please adjust parameters below to match your situation." }, "Classroom": { SqFtRoom: 600, heightFt: 8, numberOfPeopleInSpace: 10, percentImmune: 0.12, activity: "Talking (25 Quanta/hr)", emitterKidsOrAdult: "kids", emitterMaskEfficiency: 0.25, inhalationMaskEfficiency: 0.25, timeMinutes: 480, Repetitions: 4, percentCurrentlyInfected: 0.03, ventilation: 1.5, emitterMultiplier:1e5, notes: "hybrid. 2 days in person. That's 4 days in 2 weeks, Includes mask wearing, but poor ventilation. NOTE: lunchtime is a big question mark not included in this analysis. See https://viralhelmets.medium.com/three-hidden-covid-risks-uber-drivers-break-rooms-empty-classrooms-622581604d55. Please adjust parameters below to match your situation." }, "Lunch": { SqFtRoom: 600, heightFt: 8, numberOfPeopleInSpace: 10, percentImmune: 0.12, activity: "Talking (25 Quanta/hr)", emitterKidsOrAdult: "half", emitterMaskEfficiency: 0, inhalationMaskEfficiency: 0, timeMinutes: 60, Repetitions: 4, percentCurrentlyInfected: 0.03, ventilation: 1.5, emitterMultiplier:1e5, notes: "60 minute lunch in a classroom with poor ventilation. 4 times in 2 weeks. No masks. This only looks at aerosol risk. If people are close or within droplet range, the risk would be higher. This would include break rooms to some extent, even if you are alone. See https://viralhelmets.medium.com/three-hidden-covid-risks-uber-drivers-break-rooms-empty-classrooms-622581604d55. Please adjust parameters below to match your situation." }, "Restaurant (1 visit, no mask)": { SqFtRoom: 1000 , heightFt: 10 , numberOfPeopleInSpace:8 , percentImmune:0.12, activity:"Talking (25 Quanta/hr)", emitterKidsOrAdult:"adults", emitterMaskEfficiency:0.1, inhalationMaskEfficiency:0.0, timeMinutes:60, Repetitions:1, percentCurrentlyInfected:0.03 , ventilation:3, emitterMultiplier:100000, notes: "60 minutes, in person, no masks. Not crowded. If crowded, adjust the parameter. This is just the aerosol risk. There may be additional droplet risk when you talk to other people or if air vents spread drops long distances. Please adjust parameters below to match your situation." }, "Grocery Store (1 visit)": { SqFtRoom: 3975 , heightFt: 18 , numberOfPeopleInSpace:75 , percentImmune:0.12, activity:"Gentle exercising quietly (10 Quanta/hr)", emitterKidsOrAdult:"adults", emitterMaskEfficiency:0.5, inhalationMaskEfficiency:0.30, timeMinutes:60, Repetitions:1, percentCurrentlyInfected:0.03 , ventilation:3, emitterMultiplier:100000, notes: "Generally low risk for a 1 hour visit. The biggest impact is the mask you would wear (inhalation mask). 60 minutes. But all elements of the CAPTIVE model matter. See https://www.covidestimators.org/misc/captive-model. Modeled after a medium size grocery store, not a large superstore. Please adjust parameters below to match your situation." }, "Grocery Store (40hrs/week work)": { SqFtRoom: 3975 , heightFt: 18 , numberOfPeopleInSpace:75 , percentImmune:0.12, activity:"Gentle exercising quietly (10 Quanta/hr)", emitterKidsOrAdult:"adults", emitterMaskEfficiency:0.5, inhalationMaskEfficiency:0.30, timeMinutes:480, Repetitions:10, percentCurrentlyInfected:0.03 , ventilation:3, emitterMultiplier:100000, notes: "8 hour shifts, 10 days over 2 weeks. Modeled after a medium size grocery store, not a large superstore. Please adjust parameters below to match your situation." } , "Warehouse Work (40hrs/week work)": { SqFtRoom: 40000 , heightFt: 25 , numberOfPeopleInSpace:75 , percentImmune:0.12, activity:"Gentle exercising quietly (10 Quanta/hr)", emitterKidsOrAdult:"adults", emitterMaskEfficiency:0.25, inhalationMaskEfficiency:0.25, timeMinutes:480, Repetitions:10, percentCurrentlyInfected:0.03 , ventilation:1.2, emitterMultiplier:100000, notes: "8 hour shifts, 10 days over 2 weeks. Please adjust parameters below to match your situation." }, "Other": { notes: "For OTHER, Please go down and adjust parameters below to match your situation." }} /* SqFtRoom heightFt numberOfPeopleInSpace percentImmune activity emitterKidsOrAdult emitterMaskEfficiency inhalationMaskEfficiency timeMinutes Repetitions percentCurrentlyInfected ventilation emitterMultiplier */ let myparams= situationsAndInputs[situation]; if (situation!=="Other") { viewof SqFtRoom.setValue(myparams["SqFtRoom"]); viewof heightFt.setValue(myparams["heightFt"]); viewof numberOfPeopleInSpace.setValue(myparams["numberOfPeopleInSpace"]); viewof percentImmune.setValue(myparams["percentImmune"]); viewof activity.setValue(myparams["activity"]); viewof emitterKidsOrAdult.setValue(myparams["emitterKidsOrAdult"]); viewof emitterMaskEfficiency.setValue(myparams["emitterMaskEfficiency"]); viewof inhalationMaskEfficiency.setValue(myparams["inhalationMaskEfficiency"]); viewof timeMinutes.setValue(myparams["timeMinutes"]); viewof Repetitions.setValue(myparams["Repetitions"]); viewof percentCurrentlyInfected.setValue(myparams["percentCurrentlyInfected"]); viewof ventilation.setValue(myparams["ventilation"]); viewof emitterMultiplier.setValue(myparams["emitterMultiplier"]); } return html`

Setting default situation parameters for ${situation}

Default Notes: ${situationsAndInputs[situation].notes}

` }33:Ta13,html`

RESULTS

to an individual wearing a ${inhalationMaskEfficiency.toLocaleString(undefined, { style: "percent", maximumSignificantDigits: 3 })} efficient mask at ${situation}

2-week Individual Risk calculated as ${multipleRisk(OneTimeRisk,Repetitions).toLocaleString(undefined, { style: "percent", maximumSignificantDigits: 3 })}

or about 1 in ${(Math.trunc(1/(multipleRisk(OneTimeRisk,Repetitions)))).toLocaleString()} chance.

Recommendation: Anything over 0.1% is considered moderate risk. Over 1% is risky. Over 4% is severe risk.

This assumes that each person in the room has ${(percentCurrentlyInfected).toLocaleString(undefined, { style: "percent", maximumSignificantDigits: 3 })} chance of carrying and spreading the virus. Your community may be higher or lower.

Overall, the number of expected cases is ${(outputTotalCases2Weeks).toLocaleString(undefined, {maximumSignificantDigits: 3})} over 2 weeks among the ${numberOfPeopleInSpace} people in the space

Parameter summary:

SqFtRoom=${SqFtRoom} sqft	heightFt=${heightFt} ft	numberOfPeopleInSpace=${numberOfPeopleInSpace} people	percentImmune=${(percentImmune).toLocaleString(undefined, { style: "percent"}) }
activity=${activity}	KidsOrAdult=${emitterKidsOrAdult}	emitterMaskEfficiency=${(emitterMaskEfficiency).toLocaleString(undefined, { style: "percent"})} inhalationMaskEfficiency=${(inhalationMaskEfficiency).toLocaleString(undefined, { style: "percent"})}	timeMinutes=${timeMinutes} minutes
Repetitions in 2 weeks=${Repetitions}	percentCurrentlyInfected=${(percentCurrentlyInfected).toLocaleString(undefined, { style: "percent"})}	ventilation=${(ventilation).toLocaleString(undefined, {minimumFractionDigits: 2})} ACH	emitterMultiplier =${emitterMultiplier}

`34:T5cd,viewof numberOfPeopleInSpace = { let sliderMax=100 const div = html`

Number of People in space

description: "If many people come in and out, use the average number at any given time."

`; const range = div.querySelector("[type=range]"); const number = div.querySelector("[type=number]"); const halfB = div.querySelector("[name=halfB]"); const doubleB = div.querySelector("[name=doubleB]"); div.value = range.value = number.value = 50 range.oninput = () => number.value = div.value = range.valueAsNumber; number.oninput = () => { if (number.valueAsNumber > sliderMax) { range.value=sliderMax; div.value=number.valueAsNumber; } else { range.value = div.value = number.valueAsNumber; } } halfB.onclick = () => { console.log("clicked"); div.setValue(number.valueAsNumber/2); }; doubleB.onclick = () => { div.setValue(number.valueAsNumber*2); }; div.setValue = function(newValue, { dispatch = true } = {}) { div.value=range.value=number.value=newValue; // As setting the value property doesn't dispatch an event, I do it with a custom event if (dispatch) { div.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input", { bubbles: true })); } }; return div; }35:T709,md`# how was this calculated (INCOMPLETE, see tinyurl.com/covid-estimator for complete details) ## Space and Time Duration There were ${numberOfPeopleInSpace} people in the room with sqft of ${SqFtRoom} square feet and ${heightFt} feet of ceiling height. You gave a time duration of ZZZZ. Every hour, you are breathing NNN times. That comes out to ZZ gallons. If the air in those ZZZ gallons contains COVID particles, that will lead to possible illness. ## Activities and protections Using the parameters given below, in particular: * Activity: list * Protection/Masks: list * Time emitters emitting: list * Ventilation: list this means that the chance a dose of virus is in a gallon of air is QUANTACONCENTRATION. If you don't wear a mask, and only considering the aerosol risk (see aerosol risk vs droplet risk link), you would have a ZZZZ percent chance of getting sick if one person in the room is sick. Since you are wearing a mask (go you!), your risk is reduced to ZZZZ percent. ## Is someone infected in the room? There is generally no way to directly know if someone in the room is already infected just by looking at them. The majority of infections appear to come from people who do not show symptoms (presymptomatic or asymptomatic). Therefore, we have to use probability to estimate how many of the people have the infection. From the infectivity in the community, ${percentCurrentlyInfected} was used. Adjust to match your community by using the slider below. ## Overall Summary If someone is infected, your chance of infection (called secondary infection) is ZZZZ. This takes into account you wearing a mask of ZZZ protection efficiency. The chance someone is infected is ZZZZ. So, the combined chance that someone is infected AND you get infected is ZZZZ1 * ZZZZ2 = ZZZZZ3. `36:[] 30:{"id":"59e4af225ca426b7","slug":"covid-individual-event-risk-calculator-v0-2","title":" Covid Individual Event Risk Calculator v0.2","thumbnail":"5ed132bc8607354a4f0ae0bc9b0b95299daace952f1fe2bd96c59437cf7e4d9c","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2021-01-24T05:00:12.636Z","update_time":"$D2021-01-27T02:05:46.564Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2021-01-24T17:19:30.197Z","fork":true,"stars":1,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"15d587e66f4266d3","login":"chonghorizons","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/58f00abac9e09c9bd8b8f4d7fa69299ac7ba47eef711449bf2d55b1b52d740ac","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1107,"publish_version":1107,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"f44fea89e21f8c13","login":"chonghorizons","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/58f00abac9e09c9bd8b8f4d7fa69299ac7ba47eef711449bf2d55b1b52d740ac","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"f44fea89e21f8c13","login":"chonghorizons","name":"","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/58f00abac9e09c9bd8b8f4d7fa69299ac7ba47eef711449bf2d55b1b52d740ac","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"subscribed":null,"forks":0,"collection":{"id":"7ca3ab8c17228889","slug":"covid19-calculators-and-simulations","title":"Covid19 calculators and simulations","owner":{"id":"15d587e66f4266d3","login":"chonghorizons","name":""}},"type":"notebook","body":{"title":" Covid Individual Event Risk Calculator v0.2","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"html`

Covid Individual Event Risk Calculator v0.2

version 0.2 (trying to use linked inputs and half/double same row)\n\n

This implements https://tinyurl.com/covid-estimator (Jiminez Model) as simplified interactive risk calculator.\n\n

***Instructions:***\n

SIMPLE/ GET STARTED: Pick a scenario below as a base scenario. Then scroll down and read the results.\n

CUSTOMIZE: Move the sliders around in the assumptions to look at how the risk changes with different parameters\n\n\n`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":5,"value":"md`## Pick a base scenario`\n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":41,"value":"viewof situation = radio({\n title: \"Your situation?\",\n description: \"Which of these is closest to your situation? You will be able to edit after loading the defaults\",\n options: optionsForSituationRadio(),\n value: 'Lunch'\n})\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":756,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":238,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":277,"value":"html`

## Quick Adjustments

\n\n

click a button then go up to see how it changed

`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":309,"value":"{\n let word= \"myMask\";\n const form = html``;\n form.worse.onclick = () => {\n let a=inhalationMaskEfficiency;\n viewof inhalationMaskEfficiency.setValue(a/2);\n };\n form.better.onclick = () => {\n let a=inhalationMaskEfficiency;\n viewof inhalationMaskEfficiency.setValue(1-(1-a)/2);\n };\n form.casual.onclick = () => {viewof inhalationMaskEfficiency.setValue(0.35); };\n form.noLeaks.onclick = () => {viewof inhalationMaskEfficiency.setValue(0.8); };\n form.n95.onclick = () => {viewof inhalationMaskEfficiency.setValue(0.95); };\n form.PAPR.onclick = () => {viewof inhalationMaskEfficiency.setValue(0.9999); };\n return form;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1002,"value":"{\n let word= \"their Masks\";\n const form = html``;\n form.worse.onclick = () => {\n let a=emitterMaskEfficiency;\n viewof emitterMaskEfficiency.setValue(a/2);\n };\n form.better.onclick = () => {\n let a=emitterMaskEfficiency;\n viewof emitterMaskEfficiency.setValue(1-(1-a)/2);\n };\n form.casual.onclick = () => {viewof emitterMaskEfficiency.setValue(0.35); };\n form.noLeaks.onclick = () => {viewof emitterMaskEfficiency.setValue(0.8); };\n form.n95.onclick = () => {viewof emitterMaskEfficiency.setValue(0.95); };\n form.PAPR.onclick = () => {viewof emitterMaskEfficiency.setValue(0.9999); };\n return form;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":280,"value":"{\n const form = html``;\n form.halfTime.onclick = () => {\n let a=timeMinutes;\n console.log(a)\n viewof timeMinutes.setValue(a/2);\n };\n form.doubleTime.onclick = () => {\n let a=timeMinutes;\n viewof timeMinutes.setValue(a*2);\n };\n return form;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":345,"value":"{\n const form = html``;\n form.half.onclick = () => {\n viewof ventilation.setValue(ventilation/2);\n };\n form.double.onclick = () => {\n viewof ventilation.setValue(ventilation*2);\n };\n return form;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1056,"value":"{\n const form = html``;\n form.adults.onclick = () => {\n viewof emitterKidsOrAdult.setValue(\"adults\");\n };\n form.kids.onclick = () => {\n viewof emitterKidsOrAdult.setValue(\"kids\");\n };\n form.half.onclick = () => {\n viewof emitterKidsOrAdult.setValue(\"half\");\n };\n return form;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":374,"value":"{\n const form = html``;\n form.super.onclick = () => {\n viewof emitterMultiplier.setValue(1e8);\n };\n form.heavy.onclick = () => {\n viewof emitterMultiplier.setValue(1e7);\n };\n form.regular.onclick = () => {\n viewof emitterMultiplier.setValue(1e5);\n };\n return form;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1070,"value":"html`

Plug for a side project

\n\n

This is a simple explanation of how COVID spreads in the air. Aimed at 5th-12th grade education level. Link to comic

\n\n

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":17,"value":"html`

## adjust scenario

\n\n

adjust the sliders and inputs, then go up to see how risk changed

\n\n

Overview: CAPTIVE parameters. \n\n

CAPTIVE stands for Crowdedness / Activity / Protection (masks) / Time / Infectivity in community / Ventilation / and Emitter Strength (superspreading emitter). CAPTIVE is all the things you can do to affect COVID aerosol risk.`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":74,"value":"md`### Crowdedness`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":73,"value":"viewof SqFtRoom= logSlider({\n min: 10, \n max: 100000, \n precision: 0,\n format: \",\",\n value: 1000, \n title: \"Size of room in Square Feet.\", \n description: \" Multiply approximate length and width.\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":95,"value":"viewof heightFt= logSlider({\n min: 5, \n max: 100, \n precision: 0,\n format: \",\",\n value: 8, \n title: \"height of room in Feet.\", \n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":102,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":687,"value":"viewof percentImmune = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1 , \n precision: 2,\n value: 0.12, \n format: \".0%\",\n title: \"Percent Immune\", \n description: \"Immune = Previously infected plus 90% of vaccinated people\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":111,"value":"md`### Activity`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":166,"value":"viewof activity = radio({\n title: \"Your Activity\",\n description: \"Which of these is closest to your situation? (All of these assume at least cloth masks are used. NOTE: A quanta is roughly an infectious dose of virus. Notice how talking, sneezing, coughing, and singing dramatically increase quanta that is produced.)\",\n options: optionsForActivityRadio(),\n value: '\"Talking (25 Quanta/hr)\"'\n})\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":183,"value":"viewof emitterKidsOrAdult = radio({\n title: \"Primarily kids who are emitting?\",\n description: \"Kids breathe less and are thought to be less infectious\",\n options: [\n { label: \"Mostly/All Adults\", value: \"adults\" },\n { label: \"Mostly/All Kids \", value: \"kids\" },\n { label: \"Half, or in-between \", value: \"half\" } \n ],\n value: 'adults'\n})\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":113,"value":"md`### Protection / Masks`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":200,"value":"viewof emitterMaskEfficiency = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1 , \n precision:2,\n step: 0.01, \n value:0.25, \n format: \".0%\",\n title: \"Average emitter mask efficiency\", \n description: \"for potential virus emitters\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":208,"value":"viewof inhalationMaskEfficiency = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1 , \n precision:4,\n step: 0.0001, \n value:0.25, \n format: \".2%\",\n title: \"Your/Susceptible person's mask efficiency\", \n description: \"If you want to look at the average, use a mask average\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":115,"value":"md`### Time Duration`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":160,"value":"viewof timeMinutes = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 480, \n precision:1,\n step: 5, \n value: 60, \n title: \"Duration in Minutes\", \n description: \"\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":717,"value":"viewof Repetitions=number({value: 1, title: \"Repetitions in 2 weeks\", description: \"Set as 1 if one time event. Another example: If the duration is 1 class and there is school 4 days in 2 weeks (2days/wk) and 5 classes per day, that would be 20 repetitions of classes in 2 weeks. \", submit: false});\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":122,"value":"md`### Infection Rate in Community`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":62,"value":"viewof percentCurrentlyInfected = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 0.20, \n precision:4, \n step: 0.0005,\n value: 0.035, \n format: \"0.2%\",\n title: \"percent Currently Infected in your area (county)\", \n description: \"You can get this from https://covid19-projections.com/infections/summary-counties/ (searchable) ; or get from NY Times for your county but you have to do the calulation yourself. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html by taking the infectionRatePer100000 and multiply by 3 (ascertainment bias) and by 15 (15 infectious days), then divide by 100000. In Dec 2020, 60-150 were typical for infectionRatePer100000. \"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":124,"value":"md`### Ventilation`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":11,"value":"viewof ventilation = slider({\n min: 0.2, \n max: 60, \n step: 0.1, \n value: 3, \n title: \"Ventilation\", \n description: \"in ACH (air changes per hour). If you have air filtration, convert that to equivalent ACH (clean air) and add it to the natural ventilation estimate. On twitter, the #covidCo2 hashtag documents many ways to use CO2 meters to check yor ventilation. This is in addition to natural deposition rate. See tinyurl.com/covid-estimator\"\n})\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":126,"value":"md`### Emitter, possible superinfective super spreader / Bad Luck Case`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":132,"value":"viewof emitterMultiplier = logSlider({\n min: 1e3, \n max: 1e8, \n precision: 1,\n format: \".0e\",\n value: 1e5, \n title: \"Emitter Superinfective?\", \n description: \"Leave as 10^5='1e+5' for average infectiveness. In a `bad luck` sittuation, the infective person could be highly infective. This would translate to having a PCR test that found 10^8 copies per microliter rather than the purported 'average' (actually, median) 10^5 copies per microliter. Therefore, the upper limit of measured high RNA concetrations is about 1000x of the median. This is the worst case scenario of infectivity that we should plan for. See [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7128099/ and [2] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2768712 and [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211635/\"\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":252,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":958,"value":"md`## Necessary code\n\n## Ignore everything below here unless you want to modify the model or check the calculation formulas`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":14,"value":"import {number, slider, checkbox, select, radio, autoselect} from \"@severo/inputs-setter\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":86,"value":"import {logSlider} from '@severo/log-slider'","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":231,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3-format@2\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":395,"value":"md`# RAW CALCULATIONS\n\n## These calculations match the Nov 2020 version of the tinyurl.com/covid-estimator`\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":408,"value":"volumeInCubicMeters= SqFtRoom * heightFt * 0.0283168","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":424,"value":"timeHours=timeMinutes/60","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":426,"value":"totalFirstOrderRateLoss=ventilation+0.62+0.3","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":429,"value":"InfectivePeopleUsually1=1","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":436,"value":"FractionImmuneUsually0=0.00","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":441,"value":"SusceptiblePeople = numberOfPeopleInSpace*(1-percentImmune) -InfectivePeopleUsually1","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":442,"value":"BreathingRateBase=0.51600;","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":452,"value":"viewof BreathingRateMultiplier= number()\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":444,"value":"{ switch(emitterKidsOrAdult) {\n case \"adults\":\n viewof BreathingRateMultiplier.setValue(1);\n break;\n case \"kids\":\n viewof BreathingRateMultiplier.setValue(0.2);\n break;\n case \"half\": \n viewof BreathingRateMultiplier.setValue(0.6);\n break;\n}}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":462,"value":"BreathingRateSusceptibles=BreathingRateBase*BreathingRateMultiplier","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":463,"value":"`not showing CO2 numbers, not yet Jan2020`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":465,"value":"QuantaExhalationBase=2","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":467,"value":"viewof QuantaMultiplier=number()","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":478,"value":"{ let activityNumbers= [\n {name: \"Sitting Quietly (2 Quanta/hr)\", value: 1},\n {name: \"Gentle exercising quietly (10 Quanta/hr)\", value: 5},\n {name: \"Talking (25 Quanta/hr)\", value: 12.5} ,\n {name: \"Talking Loudly / Singing (100 Quanta/hr)\", value: 50},\n {name: \"Sneezing and coughing people (100 Quanta/hr)\", value: 50},\n {name: \"Screaming / Talking Very Loudly (500 Quanta/hr)\", value: 250}];\n \n activityNumbers.forEach( (x) => {\n // console.log(x)\n if (x.name===activity)\n viewof QuantaMultiplier.setValue(x.value);\n })\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":509,"value":"percentCurrentlyInfected","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":591,"value":"NetAvgEmissionsRate=B118*(1-B119*B120)*B102\n ","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1050,"value":"KidsAdultAdjustment= emitterKidsOrAdult==\"adults\" ? 1 : emitterKidsOrAdult==\"kids\" ? 0.2 : 0.6","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":610,"value":"B118=QuantaExhalationBase*QuantaMultiplier*KidsAdultAdjustment*emitterMultiplier/1e5\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":613,"value":"B119=emitterMaskEfficiency","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":615,"value":"B120=1\n// this is just the fraction with masks","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":621,"value":"B102= InfectivePeopleUsually1\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":593,"value":"AvqQuantaConcentration=B133/B94/B75*(1-(1/B94/B86)*(1-Math.exp(-B94*B86)))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":624,"value":"B133=NetAvgEmissionsRate\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":629,"value":"B94=totalFirstOrderRateLoss","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":636,"value":"B75=volumeInCubicMeters","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":637,"value":"B86=timeHours","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":606,"value":"B134=AvqQuantaConcentration","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":595,"value":"QuantaInhaledPerPerson=B134*B112*B86*(1-B121*B120)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":653,"value":"B112=BreathingRateSusceptibles","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":654,"value":"B121=inhalationMaskEfficiency","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":589,"value":"B135=QuantaInhaledPerPerson","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":543,"value":"outputProbInfectionIf1Infected= 1-Math.exp(-B135) ","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":664,"value":"(outputProbInfectionIf1Infected).toLocaleString(undefined, {\n style: \"percent\", \n maximumSignificantDigits: 3\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":544,"value":"probabilityAtLeast1personIsInfected=(1-(1 - percentCurrentlyInfected)**(numberOfPeopleInSpace*(1-percentImmune)))","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":546,"value":"outputProbUsingCommunityInfection1Rep =1 - (1 - B138*B125)**B104","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":672,"value":"B104=SusceptiblePeople","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":677,"value":"B138=outputProbInfectionIf1Infected","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":680,"value":"B125=percentCurrentlyInfected","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":548,"value":"outputTotalCases1Rep = (B104-B161)*B164","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":704,"value":"B161=(B102+B104)*B125 // N of infected people present","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":706,"value":"B164=outputProbUsingCommunityInfection1Rep","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":886,"value":"outputTotalCases2Weeks=(B104-B161)*multipleRisk(B164,Repetitions)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":888,"value":"\n function multipleRisk(oneRisk,repetitions) {\n \n return (1-(1-oneRisk)**repetitions)\n }\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":1067,"value":"html`

Assuming exactly 1 person is infected.

\n\n

RESULTS

to an individual wearing a ${inhalationMaskEfficiency.toLocaleString(undefined, {\n style: \"percent\", \n maximumSignificantDigits: 3\n})} efficient mask at ${situation}

\n\n

1 session Individual Risk calculated as ${(outputProbInfectionIf1Infected).toLocaleString(undefined, {\n style: \"percent\", \n maximumSignificantDigits: 3\n})}

\nor about 1 in ${(Math.trunc(1/(multipleRisk(OneTimeRisk,Repetitions)))).toLocaleString()} chance\n\n

`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":950,"value":"md`### helper functions`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":854,"value":"{\n/* const form = html``;\n form.half.onclick = () => {\n console.log(\"clicked\");\n viewof numberOfPeopleInSpace.setValue(numberOfPeopleInSpace/2);\n };\n form.double.onclick = () => {\n viewof numberOfPeopleInSpace.setValue(numberOfPeopleInSpace*2);\n };\n return form;\n*/\n return \"hidden\"\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":35,"value":"function optionsForSituationRadio() { \n let scenarioOptions = [\n \"Office Work 40hrs/week\", \n \"Visit Friend (once)\",\n \"Classroom\",\n \"Lunch\",\n \"Restaurant (1 visit, no mask)\", \n \"Grocery Store (1 visit)\", \n \"Grocery Store (40hrs/week work)\", \n \"Warehouse Work (40hrs/week work)\", \n \"Other\"]\n ;\nreturn scenarioOptions.map( x => { return ({ label: x, value: x}) });\n }\n ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":168,"value":"function optionsForActivityRadio() { \n let scenarioOptions = [\n \"Sitting Quietly (2 Quanta/hr)\",\n \"Gentle exercising quietly (10 Quanta/hr)\",\n \"Talking (25 Quanta/hr)\",\n \"Talking Loudly / Singing (100 Quanta/hr)\",\n \"Sneezing and coughing people (100 Quanta/hr)\",\n \"Screaming / Talking Very Loudly (500 Quanta/hr)\",\n]\n ;\nreturn scenarioOptions.map( x => { return ({ label: x, value: x}) });\n }","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":225,"value":"OneTimeRisk = outputProbUsingCommunityInfection1Rep\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":954,"value":"md`### Possible features:\n\n- [ ] Default (Quick check) menus\n- [ ] Adjust/Confirm inputs\n- [ ] WhatIfs for CAPTIVE (especially ventilation and masks) (Jan 2021 currently manually using the double and half buttons\n- [ ] Convert to linked inputs: slider and value: https://observablehq.com/@mbostock/linked-inputs\netc. (Jan 2021 underway)`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":188,"value":"/* viewof showKidVsAdultSeparately = checkbox({\n title: \"Show Separate Results for Kids and Adults\",\n options: [{ value: \"toggle\", label: \"On\" }],\n}) */","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":260,"value":"/* viewof percentTimeYouAreInRoom = slider({\n min: 0, \n max: 1 , \n precision:2,\n step: 0.01,\n format: \".0%\",\n value: 1, \n title: \"Percent of Time you are in the room\", \n description: \"defaults to 100%. This would be lower if it is a space you go in and out of.\"\n}) */\n\"hidden\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":147,"value":"/* `viewof timeScale = radio({\n title: \"Time Scale\",\n description: \"\",\n options: optionsForTimeRadio(),\n value: 'hours'\n})` */\n\"hidden feature\"\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":269,"value":"/* viewof useSteadyStateForQuanta = checkbox({\n title: \"Is everyone entering together at the same time?\",\n options: [{ value: \"toggle\", label: \"On\" }],\n description: \"Uncheck this for supermarket visits and break rooms and similar situations. In those cases, the room has a steady state of people and potential virus (quanta). You are entering for a short period, but the virus may already be in the room. When checked, it is assumed that there is no virus in the room and that the concentration rises to steady state over time. For a small room, steady state might be reached in ??? minutes.\"\n}) */\n\"hidden\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"},{"id":150,"value":"function optionsForTimeRadio() { \n let scenarioOptions = [\n \"minutes\", \n \"hours\",\n \"multiple days or weeks\"]\n ;\nreturn scenarioOptions.map( x => { return ({ label: x, value: x}) });\n }\n ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W36","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 31:"$30:body"