This section would greatly benefit from a single re-usable function for calculating ce_ex_post.

The goal was to estimate the true variability of the effect sizes across the interventions. But the implementation confounds uncertainty about individual effect sizes with variability across different effect sizes. This leads to an over-estimation of the variability of effect sizes across the different interventions. That is problematic and should be fixed.

The current estimte is a placeholder. It will need to be replaced by estimates derived from other studies that were conducted prior to 2019.

Estimate using estimate_half_life_of_intervention_effects.m

to do incorporate data from additional experiments with follow-up assessments: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s_iuWhOjxjjp4wCqMrTbWGbumUpcI0Y0rQkkWe71jkQ/edit?usp=sharing