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gitblamecarrot
Public
Edited
Dec 22, 2022
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allBids.filter(bid => bid.bidder.id === "0xb6c5b1a489606028da263eda28063186f96fa921")
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plotableSeedDistributions.background
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decay = (factor) => (acc, value) => factor * value + (1 - factor) * acc
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nocMoveFactory = (factor) => (data) =>
data.reduce(
(acc, auction) => {
acc.moving = decay(factor)(acc.moving, auction.settleTimeSec);
acc.auctions.push({
...auction,
[`noc${factor}`]: acc.moving
});
return acc;
},
{ moving: 0, auctions: [] }
).auctions
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projections = [0.2, 0.3, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.95, 0.999]
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decayedData = projections.reduce(
(acc, proj) => nocMoveFactory(proj)(acc),
auctionData.slice(-40, -2)
)
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prediction = (attribute) => {
const last = decayedData[decayedData.length - 1];
return R.range(last.id, 570).map((id, i) => ({
id,
endTime: new Date(
(Number(last["endTime"]) +
last["settleTimeSec"] +
i * last[attribute] +
24 * 60 * 60 * i) *
1000
)
}));
}
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predicted = projections
.map((p) => `noc${p}`)
.reduce((acc, attribute) => {
acc[attribute] = prediction(attribute);
return acc;
}, {})
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Plot.plot({
marks: [
Plot.ruleY([0]),
Plot.lineY(decayedData, Plot.windowY({ x: "id", y: "noc0.2", k: 10 })),
Plot.lineY(decayedData, Plot.windowY({ x: "id", y: "noc0.7", k: 10 })),
Plot.lineY(decayedData, Plot.windowY({ x: "id", y: "noc0.95", k: 10 })),
Plot.lineY(decayedData, Plot.windowY({ x: "id", y: "noc0.999", k: 10 })),
Plot.lineY(
auctionData,
Plot.windowY({
x: "id",
y: "settleTimeSec",
k: 10,
reduce: "mean",
color: "red"
})
)
]
})
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predictionHms = (p) =>
(p.endTime.getHours() + 2) * 100 + (p.endTime.getMinutes() / 60) * 100
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Plot.plot({
y: {
// domain: [
// new Date(),
// predicted[Object.keys(predicted)[0]].reverse()[0].endTime
// ]
domain: [1800, 2400]
},
marks: [
Plot.ruleY([0]),
Plot.lineY(predicted["noc0.6"], { x: "id", y: predictionHms }),
Plot.lineY(predicted["noc0.7"], { x: "id", y: predictionHms }),
Plot.lineY(predicted["noc0.5"], { x: "id", y: predictionHms }),
Plot.lineY(predicted["noc0.95"], { x: "id", y: predictionHms })
]
})
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auctionData.filter(auction => moment(Number(auction.startDate)).hour() === 13)
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auctionData.map(auction => moment(Number(auction.startTime)).hour())[287]
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bidderParticipation.filter(bidder => bidder.bidder.indexOf("667") > -1)
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probability(41)
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probability = n => 1 - Math.pow((234 - 1/234), n)
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fetchAuctions = async (skip) => ((await axios.post(SUBGRAPH_URL, {query: AUCTIONS_QUERY(skip)})).data.data.auctions)
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MULTIPLES = [
"once",
"twice",
"three times",
"four times",
"five times",
"six times",
"seven times"
]
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AUCTIONS_QUERY = (skip = 0) => `
{
auctions (first: 1000) {
id
startTime
endTime
settled
bids {
id
amount
txIndex
blockNumber
blockTimestamp
bidder {
id
}
}
noun {
id
seed {
background
body
accessory
head
glasses
}
owner {
id
}
}
}
}
`
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