34:["$","title",null,{"children":"Filtering Forecasts down to just one question | Miles McCrocklin | Observable"}] 3c:T48e,md` ## Understanding Forecast In a time where news can become stale, or worse, misinform the moment it goes online, [Forecast](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877) can help sift through the noise and showcase an evolving consensus as a function of time. [Forecast](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877) is modeled as a social [prediction market](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) built within [New Product Experimentation @ Facebook](https://npe.fb.com/). Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what a community thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. [Forecast](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877) is a community where members can pose their own questions about the future, make predictions, and contribute to discussions leveraging their collective knowledge. All the data from the app is public and available [here](https://forecastapp.net/downloads/). We invite you to take the data for a spin and [tell us](mailto:forecast-feedback@fb.com) if you have any feedback! 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38:{"id":"149a05d6721d14b3","slug":"filtering-forecasts-down-to-just-one-question","title":"Filtering Forecasts down to just one question","thumbnail":"5d31641f2b471a3ffded48fdb5cd43047244f668dcc4d7672345915f5ccc6fcd","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-10-29T19:10:36.593Z","update_time":"$D2020-11-04T21:32:46.611Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-11-04T17:34:24.492Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"3762857ab58c4e81","login":"milr0c","name":"Miles McCrocklin","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/27e7022929fa2ee4755674f9ea96d21315d3693eff79e3c54f78242315a0e4b2","tier":"starter_2024","bio":"Building @ForecastByNPE | past: Eng lead on fact-checking\n@facebook","followed_by_you":false,"follows_you":false},"version":206,"publish_version":206,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"fbde6f29d8f91a5b","login":"milr0c","name":"Miles 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question`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":202,"value":"$3c","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":122,"value":"md`\n## Picking a question to look at\n\nThere's a ton of great questions the community is answering, from [\"Who will be elected president in the 2020 US election?\"](https://forecastapp.net/q/TWFya2V0OlZaX25SYk1RSHlN/) to [\"When a COVID-19 vaccine is discovered, will it be available for free for people living in the US?\"](https://forecastapp.net/q/TWFya2V0Ok15VGxHeHo1Q3dR/). \n\nThere are a ton of great questions to look at but for this intro analysis, let's look at [\"Will the US government ban TikTok by the end of 2021?\n\"](https://forecastapp.net/q/TWFya2V0OmFyNTRlbm1qcmp3/).\n\nTo get the question it's simply in the URL from 'https://forecastapp.net/q/TWFya2V0OmFyNTRlbm1qcmp3/' where the last value of the URL is the ID of the question! \n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":123,"value":"QUESTION_ID = \"TWFya2V0OlNoRTNPUmpHelUw\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":15,"value":"md`## Filtering all of the data down to a single question`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":48,"value":"d3 = require(\"d3@5\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":29,"value":"ALL_ANSWERS = FileAttachment('ANSWERS.json').json();","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":31,"value":"\nALL_REASONS = FileAttachment('REASONS.json').json();","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":38,"value":"QUESTION_ANSWERS = ALL_ANSWERS.filter(a => a.question_id === QUESTION_ID);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":94,"value":"QUESTION_REASONS = ALL_REASONS.filter(r => r.question_id === QUESTION_ID);","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":96,"value":"QUESTION_TRANSACTIONS = FileAttachment(\"transactions-TWFya2V0OmFyNTRlbm1qcmp3@2.json\").json()","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":105,"value":"md`\n> NOTE: There is a 15MB file limit for Observable, so in order to get the transaction data you will need to find another method to pull the transactions you are looking at. You could do this with excel or with a bit of code. Below is a quick method in python\n\n\\`\\`\\`\nimport json\ninputFile = open('TRANSACTIONS.json')\ntransactions = json.load(inputFile)\nquestion_transactions = filter(lambda t : t['question_id'] == \"${QUESTION_ID}\", transactions)\njson.dump(question_transactions, open('transactions-${QUESTION_ID}.json', 'w'))\n\\`\\`\\`\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":151,"value":"md`\n## Quickly getting familiar with the data\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":185,"value":"function dateFormat(str) {\n return d3.timeFormat(\"%B %d, %Y\")(new Date(str));\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":152,"value":"html`\n

Question: ${QUESTION_ANSWERS[0].question_title}

Answers:

\n ${QUESTION_ANSWERS.map(a => html`

${a.answer_short_label}

`)}\n

Details:

Creation Date: ${dateFormat(QUESTION_ANSWERS[0].question_created)}

Resolution Date: ${dateFormat(QUESTION_ANSWERS[0].question_resolution_date)}

Resolution Criteria:

${QUESTION_ANSWERS[0].question_resolution_criteria}

\n \n

\n`","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","tool":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W3d","stdlib":"1"}} 33:null