Public
Edited
Jan 31, 2024
1 fork
pfn = un.map((_, n) => n / 101 / 50)
pfn[49]
_.sum(pfn)
p2r = pfn.map((pn, n) => pn * (Math.floor(n - 1) / 99))
Plot.lineY(p2r).plot({
x: {
label: "n"
},
y: {
label: "P(red|red)"
}
})
_.sum(p2r)
un = d3.range(0, 101)
function fillUrn(n) {
const acc = Array(100).fill("green");
for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
acc[i] = "red";
}
return _.shuffle(acc);
}
urn = fillUrn(37)
_.countBy(urn, (d) => d)
urn2 = [...urn]
ball = urn2.pop()
_.countBy(urn2, (d) => d)
mutable secondRedsGivenFirstRed = 0
mutable firstReds = 0
{
for (let i = 0; i < 10000; ++i) {
const n = _.sample(un);
const urn = fillUrn(n);
const firstBall = urn.pop(); // pull a ball out of the urn
if (firstBall === "red") {
mutable firstReds += 1;
const secondBall = urn.pop(); // pull another ball out of the urn
if (secondBall === "red") {
mutable secondRedsGivenFirstRed += 1;
}
}
}
}
P(\text{second red} | \text{first red}) = ${(secondRedsGivenFirstRed / firstReds).toFixed(2)}
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