2d:null 2e:["$","title",null,{"children":"COVID-19 Risk of Death | Nicholas R. Knezek | Observable"}] 33:T6f0,{ const form = html` `; form.airplane.addEventListener("click", () => { viewof sizeGroup.input.value = 2.2; viewof sizeGroup.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); viewof nExposures.input.value = 0.35; viewof nExposures.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); viewof pTransmission.input.value = 20; viewof pTransmission.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); }); form.bart.addEventListener("click", () => { viewof sizeGroup.input.value = 2; viewof sizeGroup.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); viewof nExposures.input.value = 0.35; viewof nExposures.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); viewof pTransmission.input.value = 30; viewof pTransmission.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); }); form.bartMonth.addEventListener("click", () => { viewof sizeGroup.input.value = 2; viewof sizeGroup.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); viewof nExposures.input.value = 1.61; viewof nExposures.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); viewof pTransmission.input.value = 30; viewof pTransmission.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); }); form.restaurant.addEventListener("click", () => { viewof sizeGroup.input.value = 1.70; viewof sizeGroup.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); viewof nExposures.input.value = 0; viewof nExposures.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); viewof pTransmission.input.value = 25; viewof pTransmission.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent("input")); }); return form; }34:[] 31:{"id":"b14f472b7ab7a9b8","slug":"covid-19-risk-of-death","title":"COVID-19 Risk of Death","thumbnail":"86caff7dc590fb88a25046a1823c0b097d649fc984d105c94cd75bb7449565f8","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2020-05-24T07:11:37.651Z","update_time":"$D2020-05-26T04:43:01.939Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2020-05-24T18:15:36.007Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":false,"stars":0,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"dcdd1cccc5c6ba11","login":"nknezek","name":"Nicholas R. Knezek","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/b0f3a10349e65cfd73387fc250d887725abfefd2e87a863bf6160cfa00b0808e","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1011,"publish_version":1011,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"45c6b3aefb9b37f9","login":"nknezek","name":"Nicholas R. Knezek","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/b0f3a10349e65cfd73387fc250d887725abfefd2e87a863bf6160cfa00b0808e","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"45c6b3aefb9b37f9","login":"nknezek","name":"Nicholas R. Knezek","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/b0f3a10349e65cfd73387fc250d887725abfefd2e87a863bf6160cfa00b0808e","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":1,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"title":"COVID-19 Risk of Death","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"md`# COVID-19 Risk of Death\nThis dashboard computes a personalized risk of death if you contract COVID-19. Probabilities taken from UK NHS study ([source](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf)).\n\nStatus: Alpha\n\n## Personal Information`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":10,"value":"viewof age = slider({\n min: 18,\n max: 95,\n value: 30,\n step: 1,\n description: \"Age (years)\",\n\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":26,"value":"viewof sex = html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":314,"value":"viewof race = html``","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":261,"value":"viewof height = slider({\n min: 40,\n max: 84,\n value: 72,\n step: 1,\n description: \"Height (inches)\",\n\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":266,"value":"viewof weight = slider({\n min: 90,\n max: 350,\n value: 175,\n step: 5,\n description: \"Weight (lbs)\",\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":319,"value":"viewof c1 = checkbox({\n title:\"Comorbidities\", \n options:[\n {label:\"Rheumatoid/Lupus/Psoriasis\", value: \"Rheumatoid/Lupus/Psoriasis\"},\n {label:\"Diabetes\", value: \"Diabetes\"},\n {label:\"Other immunosuppressive condition\", value:\"Other immunosuppressive condition\"},\n {label:\"Asthma\", value:\"Asthma\"},\n {label:\"Cancer\", value:\"Cancer\"}, \n {label:\"High Blood Pressure / Hypertension\", value:\"High Blood Pressure / Hypertension\"}, \n {label:\"Other Neurological\", value:\"Other Neurological\"},\n {label:\"Stroke/dementia\", value:\"Stroke/dementia\"},\n ],\n value: []\n }\n )","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":123,"value":"html`

How each factor affects your COVID-19 risk

\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":401,"value":"html`

Probability of death if you contract COVID-19<\\h2>\n`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":679,"value":"md`# COVID-19 Risk of Infection`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":681,"value":"viewof pActiveInfec = slider({\n min: -2,\n max: 1,\n value: -0.53,\n step: 0.01,\n scale: input => Math.pow(10,input),\n format: \".2f\",\n description: \"Percent of Population Actively Infected (%)\",\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":975,"value":"{\n const form = html`\n
\n\n\n\n
`;\n form.southKorea.addEventListener(\"click\", () => {\n viewof pActiveInfec.input.value = -2;\n viewof pActiveInfec.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"input\"));\n });\n form.newNormal.addEventListener(\"click\", () => {\n viewof pActiveInfec.input.value = -0.53;\n viewof pActiveInfec.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"input\"));\n });\n form.nyc.addEventListener(\"click\", () => {\n viewof pActiveInfec.input.value = 0.7;\n viewof pActiveInfec.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"input\"));\n });\n return form;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":733,"value":"viewof sizeGroup = slider({\n min: 0,\n max: 2.72,\n value: 1,\n step: 1/25,\n precision: 1,\n scale: input => Math.floor(Math.pow(10,input)),\n format: \".0f\",\n description: \"Size of Group\",\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":761,"value":"md`Probability at least one person is infected ~ ${d3.format(\".1f\")(pOneInfected100)}%`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":772,"value":"viewof pTransmission = slider({\n min: 0,\n max: 100,\n value: 30,\n step: 1,\n format: \".0f\",\n description: \"Probability of Transmission (%)\",\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":912,"value":"viewof nExposures = slider({\n min: 0,\n max: 2,\n value: 0,\n step: 0.01,\n scale: input => Math.floor(Math.pow(10,input)),\n format: \".0f\",\n description: \"Number of Repeated Exposures (e.g. Trips, Visits)\",\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":806,"value":"$33","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":956,"value":"viewof maskEffect = slider({\n min: 0.9,\n max: 20,\n value: 4,\n step: 0.1,\n format: \".1f\",\n description: \"Mask Mitigation Factor\",\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":985,"value":"{\n const form = html`\n
\n\n\n\n
`;\n form.noMasks.addEventListener(\"click\", () => {\n viewof maskEffect.input.value = 1;\n viewof maskEffect.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"input\"));\n });\n form.masks.addEventListener(\"click\", () => {\n viewof maskEffect.input.value = 4;\n viewof maskEffect.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"input\"));\n });\n form.respirator.addEventListener(\"click\", () => {\n viewof maskEffect.input.value = 20;\n viewof maskEffect.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"input\"));\n });\n return form;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":781,"value":"md`Probability of infection (one exposure) ~ ${d3.format(\".1f\")(pInfectionOneExposure100)}%
\nProbability of infection (${nExposures} exposures) ~ ${d3.format(\".1f\")(pInfectionNExposures100)}%\n\nProbability of death ~ ${d3.format(\".2f\")(pDeath100)}%
\n~ ${d3.format(\".0f\")(pDeath1e5)}/100,000 \nor ~ ${d3.format(\".1f\")(pDeath1e5/23)}x annural risk of death from driving`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":556,"value":"md`\n
\n
\n\n\n# Appendix: Computations`","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":757,"value":"pOneInfected = 1-(1-pActiveInfec/100)**sizeGroup","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":920,"value":"pInfectionOneExposure = pOneInfected*pTransmission/maskEffect/100","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":924,"value":"pInfectionNExposures = 1-(1-pInfectionOneExposure)**nExposures","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":962,"value":"pDeath = pInfectionNExposuresifr[0][\"val\"]/100","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":585,"value":"cm_hrs = {\n const data = {\n \"Rheumatoid/Lupus/Psoriasis\":1.23,\n \"Diabetes\":2,\n \"Asthma\":1.2,\n \"Cancer\":1.4,\n \"Heamatlogy\":3.2,\n \"Other immunosuppressive condition\":1.69,\n \"High Blood Pressure / Hypertension\":0.95,\n }\n return data\n };","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":592,"value":"cm_names = Object.keys(cm_hrs)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":600,"value":"// cm_checkboxes = cm_names.reduce((a,b) => [{label:b, value:b}],[])","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":73,"value":"f_age = (age) => {\n const c = [0.08886774, -5.05792084]\n const hr = Math.exp(c[1] + c[0]age)\n return Math.min(13, hr)\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":20,"value":"f_sex = (sex) => {\n const c = {\"Male\": 1.414, \"Female\": 0.707}\n return c[sex]\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":311,"value":"f_race = (race) => {\n const c = {\"White\": 1.0, \n \"Asian\": 1.62,\n \"Mixed\": 1.64,\n \"Black\": 1.71,\n \"Other\": 1.33}\n return c[race]\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":273,"value":"f_bmi = (height, weight) => {\n const c = [0.0016649, -0.06647206, 0.63636828]\n // const c = [0.00167482, -0.06726827, 0.65201183]\n const bmi = Math.max(19, 703*weight/(height**2))\n const hr = Math.exp(c[2] + c[1]bmi + c[0]bmi**2)\n return Math.max(1, Math.min(2.27, hr))\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":499,"value":"[1.23].reduce((a,b) => ab, 1)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":322,"value":"f_comorbid = (comorbidities) => {\n const co = {\"Rheumatoid/Lupus/Psoriasis\":1.23,\n \"Diabetes\":2,\n \"Asthma\":1.2,\n \"Cancer\":1.4,\n \"Heamatlogy\":3.2,\n \"Other immunosuppressive condition\":1.69,\n \"High Blood Pressure / Hypertension\":0.95,\n \"Other Neurological\": 2.46,\n \"Stroke/dementia\": 1.79,\n }\n return comorbidities.map(d => co[d]).reduce((a,b) => ab,1)\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":16,"value":"hr = [\n {name:\"age\", val:f_age(age), log:Math.log10(f_age(age))},\n {name:\"sex\", val:f_sex(sex), log:Math.log10(f_sex(sex))},\n {name:\"bmi\", val:f_bmi(height, weight), log:Math.log10(f_bmi(height, weight))},\n {name:\"race\", val:f_race(race), log:Math.log10(f_race(race))},\n {name:\"comorbidities\", val: f_comorbid(c1), log:Math.log10(f_comorbid(c1))},\n]","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":114,"value":"y = d3.scaleBand()\n .domain(hr.map(d => d.name))\n .range([margin.top, figHeight - margin.bottom])\n .padding(0.1)\n .round(true)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":443,"value":"xt = d3.scaleLinear()\n .domain([0.0, Math.max(10.5,Math.max(ifr.map(d => d.val))1.1)])\n .range([margin.left, figWidth - margin.right])\n .interpolate(d3.interpolateRound)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":440,"value":"yt = d3.scaleBand()\n .domain(ifr.map(d => d.name))\n .range([margin.top, figHeight - margin.bottom])\n .padding(0.1)\n .round(true)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":411,"value":"ifr = [{name:\"Total IFR\",val:total_ifr},]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":415,"value":"total_ifr = Math.min(50,hr.map(d => d.val).reduce( (a,b) => ab, ifr_base));","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":459,"value":"ifr_base = 0.8","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":334,"value":"color = d3.scaleDiverging()\n .domain([1,-.2,-2])\n .interpolator(d3.interpolateRdYlGn)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":474,"value":"colort = d3.scaleSequential()\n .domain([-10,8])\n .interpolator(d3.interpolateTurbo)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":221,"value":"f = d3.format(\".2f\");","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":648,"value":"ff = d3.format(\"+.0f\");","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":116,"value":"figHeight = 150","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":467,"value":"fig2Height = 80","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":118,"value":"figWidth = 640","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":111,"value":"margin = ({top:20, right:0, bottom: 0, left:80})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":350,"value":"import {checkbox} from '@jashkenas/inputs'","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":691,"value":"import {slider} from \"@lemonnish/nonlinear-slider\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":110,"value":"x = d3.scaleLog()\n .domain([0.025, 40])\n .range([margin.left, figWidth - margin.right])\n .interpolate(d3.interpolateRound)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":12,"value":"d3 = require.alias({\n \"d3-array\": \"d3@5\",\n \"d3-axis\": \"d3@5\",\n \"d3-dispatch\": \"d3@5\",\n \"d3-drag\": \"d3@5\",\n \"d3-ease\": \"d3@5\",\n \"d3-scale\": \"d3@5\",\n \"d3-selection\": \"d3@5\",\n \"d3-transition\": \"d3@5\"\n})(\"d3@5\", \"d3-simple-slider@1\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":4,"value":"import {legend} from \"@d3/color-legend\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 32:"$31:body"

Common Scenarios

How each factor affects your COVID-19 risk