2c:null 2d:["$","title",null,{"children":"Covid Acceleration in the U.S. | Paul Murray | Observable"}] 32:T412,projection = { const last = d3.greatest(munged, (d) => d.dateString); const lastDate = d3.isoParse(last.dateString); const maxDateString = `2021-12-30`; const maxDate = d3.isoParse(maxDateString); const days = d3.utcDays(lastDate, maxDate); const projection = []; let accelerationLoess = last.accelerationLoess; let velocityLoess = last.velocityLoess; let velocityMean = last.velocityMean; let total = last.total; let prevJerk = last.jerk; for (const [index, date] of days.entries()) { const dateString = d3.utcFormat(`%Y-%m-%d`)(date); let jerk = prevJerk; const jerkDirection = jerk / Math.abs(jerk); jerk = jerk - jerkDirection * 4; prevJerk = jerk; accelerationLoess += jerk; velocityLoess += accelerationLoess; velocityMean += accelerationLoess; if (velocityLoess < 0) velocityLoess = 0; total += velocityLoess; projection.push({ dateString, jerk, accelerationLoess, velocityLoess, velocityMean, total }); } return []; }33:T64e,munged = pipe( await d3.csv( `https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv` ), (arr) => { const keepKeys = [`Country/Region`]; return arr .map((row) => { const isDateKey = (d) => d.match(/\d{1,2}\/\d{1,2}\/\d{1,2}/); const dateKeys = Object.keys(row).filter(isDateKey); const rest = Object.fromEntries(keepKeys.map((key) => [key, row[key]])); return dateKeys.map((dateKey) => { const value = row[dateKey]; const dateObject = d3.utcParse(`%m/%d/%y`)(dateKey); const dateString = d3.utcFormat(`%Y-%m-%d`)(dateObject); return { dateKey, dateString, value, ...rest }; }); return dateKeys; }) .flat(2) .map(d3.autoType) .filter((d) => d[`Country/Region`] === `US`); }, (arr) => d3 .rollups( arr, (arr) => d3.sum(arr, (d) => d.value), (d) => d.dateString ) .map(([dateString, value]) => ({ dateString, total: value })) .sort((a, b) => d3.ascending(a[0], b[0])) .map((d, index) => ({ ...d, index })), (arr) => arr.map(getDelta({ key: `total`, outKey: `velocity` })), (arr) => addTrends(arr, { yKey: `velocity`, bandwidth: 0.03 }), (arr) => arr.map(getDelta({ key: `velocity`, outKey: `acceleration` })), (arr) => addTrends(arr, { yKey: `acceleration`, bandwidth: 0.05, period: 14 }), (arr) => arr.map(getDelta({ key: `accelerationLoess`, outKey: `jerk` })), (arr) => addTrends(arr, { yKey: `jerk` }) )34:[] 30:{"id":"d49a3f5f2dfcd1b7","slug":"covid-acceleration","title":"Covid Acceleration in the U.S.","thumbnail":"3dcb9dc1f27f082c8cd8030e6be7240ebe9d2169573aed61ff525f187b378146","access_level":"public","create_time":"$D2021-08-11T18:42:31.410Z","update_time":"$D2022-01-14T20:34:37.972Z","view_time":null,"first_public_time":"$D2021-08-12T20:59:08.152Z","has_unpublished_edits":null,"fork":{"id":"e48bf34c52588bc9","slug":"plot-scatterplot","title":"Plot Scatterplot","owner":{"id":"f35c755083683fe5","login":"observablehq","name":"Observable"}},"stars":15,"starred":false,"owner":{"type":"team","id":"77ca23d94884ea46","login":"plmrry","name":"Paul Murray","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e55c33ea9568426a80f30a4e3ca4f71e21571d01804bee4b863c3063bd4a62e1","tier":"starter_2024"},"version":1108,"publish_version":1108,"role":null,"authored":false,"authors":[{"type":"individual","id":"88a33f32468b0503","login":"plmrry","name":"Paul Murray","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e55c33ea9568426a80f30a4e3ca4f71e21571d01804bee4b863c3063bd4a62e1","tier":null}],"members":[{"type":"individual","id":"88a33f32468b0503","login":"plmrry","name":"Paul Murray","avatar_url":"https://avatars-next.observableusercontent.com/e55c33ea9568426a80f30a4e3ca4f71e21571d01804bee4b863c3063bd4a62e1","tier":null,"role":"editor"}],"comments":[],"custom_thumbnail":false,"trashed":false,"lapsed":null,"subscribed":null,"forks":8,"collection":null,"type":"notebook","body":{"titling":"auto","title":"Covid Acceleration in the U.S.","cells":[{"id":0,"value":"# Covid Acceleration in the U.S.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":237,"value":"Based on [_A new way to visualize the surge in Covid-19 cases in the U.S._](https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/26/new-way-visualize-covid-19-case-surge-us/) by [Emory Parker](https://twitter.com/jaspar)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":242,"value":"Data from the [COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19)","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":219,"value":"### Total Cases\nTotal confirmed Covid cases in the U.S.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":6,"value":"Plot.plot({\n width,\n height: plotHeight,\n x: {\n nice: true,\n label: null,\n domain: xDomain\n },\n y: {\n tickFormat: \"s\",\n zero: true,\n nice: 3,\n label: null\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.ruleY([0], { stroke: \"black\", strokeOpacity: 0.2 }),\n Plot.line(munged, { x: \"dateString\", y: \"total\", strokeWidth: 0.7 }),\n Plot.line(projection, {\n ...config.projection,\n y: `total`\n })\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":225,"value":"### Case Velocity\nNew cases per day","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":67,"value":"Plot.plot({\n width,\n height: plotHeight,\n x: {\n nice: true,\n label: null,\n domain: xDomain,\n ticks: 5\n },\n y: {\n tickFormat: \"s\",\n zero: true,\n nice: 3,\n label: null,\n domain: [0, 700e3]\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.ruleY([0], { stroke: \"black\", strokeOpacity: 0.2 }),\n Plot.line(munged, {\n x: \"dateString\",\n y: \"velocity\",\n strokeOpacity: 0.2,\n strokeWidth: 0.5\n }),\n Plot.line(munged, {\n x: \"dateString\",\n y: `velocityMean`,\n strokeWidth: 0.7\n }),\n Plot.line(projection, {\n ...config.projection,\n y: `velocityMean`\n })\n ]\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":229,"value":"### Case Acceleration\nChange in new cases per day","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":106,"value":"{\n const yKey = `acceleration`;\n return Plot.plot({\n width,\n height: plotHeight,\n x: {\n nice: true,\n label: null,\n domain: xDomain\n },\n y: {\n tickFormat: \"s\",\n zero: true,\n nice: true,\n label: null\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.ruleY([0], { stroke: \"black\", strokeOpacity: 0.2 }),\n ...aboveBelow({ yKey: `accelerationLoess` }),\n Plot.line(projection, {\n ...config.projection,\n y: `accelerationLoess`\n })\n ]\n });\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":302,"value":"### Case [Jerk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerk_%28physics%29)\nChange in change in new cases per day","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":289,"value":"{\n const yKey = `jerk`;\n return Plot.plot({\n width,\n height: plotHeight,\n x: {\n nice: true,\n label: null,\n domain: xDomain\n },\n y: {\n tickFormat: \"s\",\n zero: true,\n nice: 3,\n label: null\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.ruleY([0], { stroke: \"black\", strokeOpacity: 0.2 }),\n ...aboveBelow({ yKey }),\n Plot.line(projection, {\n ...config.projection,\n y: yKey\n })\n ]\n });\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":321,"value":"{\n const formatNumber = d3.format(`,.0f`);\n\n const columns = [\n [\n \"Date\",\n \"dateString\",\n (dateString) => d3.utcFormat(`%Y-%m-%d`)(new Date(dateString))\n ],\n [\"Total\", \"total\", d3.format(`.4s`)],\n [\"Velocity\", \"velocityLoess\", formatNumber],\n [\"Acceleration\", \"accelerationLoess\", formatNumber],\n [\"Jerk\", \"jerk\", formatNumber]\n ];\n\n const rows = munged\n .map((d) => d)\n .filter((d, i, arr) => i > arr.length - 10)\n .map((d) => {\n return html`\n

\n ${columns.map(([, key, format]) => html`${format(d[key])}`)}\n

`;\n });\n\n return html`\n\n

\n${columns.map((d) => d[0]).map((d) => html`${d}`)}\n

\n ${rows}`;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":699,"value":"$32","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":716,"value":"config = ({\n projection: {\n x: `dateString`,\n strokeWidth: 1,\n strokeDasharray: [2, 2]\n }\n})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":560,"value":"bandwidth = 0.035","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":551,"value":"xTicks = 10","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":646,"value":"xDomain = [new Date(\"2020\"), new Date(\"2022-03-01\")]","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":233,"value":"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":198,"value":"plotHeight = 250","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":882,"value":"function aboveBelow({ yKey }) {\n return [\n Plot.area(\n filterAboveBelow(munged, {\n above: true,\n key: yKey\n }),\n {\n x1: \"dateString\",\n y1: 0,\n y2: yKey,\n fill: \"red\",\n fillOpacity: 0.2\n }\n ),\n Plot.area(\n filterAboveBelow(munged, {\n above: false,\n key: yKey\n }),\n {\n x1: \"dateString\",\n y1: 0,\n y2: yKey,\n fill: \"green\",\n fillOpacity: 0.2\n }\n ),\n Plot.line(munged, {\n x: `dateString`,\n y: yKey,\n strokeWidth: 1,\n strokeOpacity: 1\n })\n ];\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":440,"value":"$33","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":354,"value":"function filterAboveBelow(array, { above, key }) {\n return array.map((d) => {\n const value = d[key];\n const check = above ? value > 0 : value < 0;\n return { ...d, [key]: check ? value : null };\n });\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":910,"value":"function addTrends(array, { yKey, bandwidth, period }) {\n return pipe(\n array,\n (array) =>\n addLoess2(array, {\n bandwidth,\n xKey: `index`,\n yKey,\n outKey: `${yKey}Loess`\n }),\n (array) => array.map(movingAverage({ period, key: yKey })),\n (array) =>\n addLoess(array, {\n xKey: `index`,\n yKey: `${yKey}Mean`,\n outKey: `${yKey}Loess_old`,\n bandwidth\n })\n );\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1066,"value":"function addLoess2(\n array,\n {\n bandwidth = 0.75,\n xKey,\n yKey,\n outKey = `${yKey}Loess`,\n xAccessor = (d) => d[xKey],\n yAccessor = (d) => d[yKey]\n }\n) {\n const filtered = array.filter(\n (d) => Number.isFinite(xAccessor(d)) && Number.isFinite(yAccessor(d))\n );\n const x = filtered.map(xAccessor);\n const y = filtered.map(yAccessor);\n const model = new Loess(\n {\n x,\n y\n },\n { span: bandwidth }\n );\n const fitted = model.predict().fitted;\n const indexToFit = Object.fromEntries(\n fitted.map((d, i) => [filtered[i].index, d])\n );\n // const fitted = fit.fitted.map((d, i) => ({ index: xFiltered[i], value: d }));\n // console.log(\"SLERB\", indexToFit);\n // console.log(\"far\", filtered);\n return array.map((d) => ({ ...d, [outKey]: indexToFit[d.index] }));\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":537,"value":"function addLoess(\n array,\n {\n xKey,\n yKey,\n outKey = `${yKey}Loess`,\n yAccessor = (d) => d[yKey],\n bandwidth = 0.07\n }\n) {\n // const normScale = d3.scaleLinear(d3.extent(array, yAccessor), [0, 1000]);\n const loessGenerator = science.stats.loess().bandwidth(bandwidth);\n const loess = loessGenerator(\n array.map((d) => d[xKey]),\n array.map((d) => d[yKey])\n );\n return array.map((d, i) => {\n const loessValue = loess[i];\n return { ...d, [outKey]: loessValue };\n });\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":112,"value":"function movingAverage({ period = 14, key, outKey = `${key}Mean` }) {\n const accessor = (d) => d[key];\n return (d, i, arr) => {\n const to = i + 1;\n const from = to - period;\n const sample = arr.slice(from, to);\n const filtered = sample.filter((d) => Number.isFinite(accessor(d)));\n const mean =\n filtered.length === period ? d3.mean(filtered, accessor) : null;\n return {\n ...d,\n [outKey]: mean\n };\n };\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":93,"value":"function getDelta({ key, outKey }) {\n return (d, i, arr) => {\n const prev = arr[i - 1];\n const delta = prev ? d[key] - prev[key] : null;\n return {\n ...d,\n [outKey]: delta\n };\n };\n}","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":438,"value":"async function pipe(arg, ...fns) {\n let out = arg;\n for (const func of fns) {\n out = await func(out);\n }\n return out;\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":608,"value":"science = require(\"@sgratzl/science\")","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1064,"value":"Loess = (await import(\"https://cdn.skypack.dev/loess\")).default","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","providerMetadata":"$undefined","attachments":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W34","stdlib":"1"}} 31:"$30:body"