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Given that there are ${_.last(targetCountryData)[fields.deaths]} deaths today in ${country}, we calculate that ${averageDaysToDeathAfterInfection} days ago on ${latestDate.clone().subtract(averageDaysToDeathAfterInfection, "days").format("MMMM D")} there where ${Math.round(targetCountryData[targetCountryData.length - 1 - averageDaysToDeathAfterInfection][fields.projected]).toLocaleString()} actual cases. On this day, official reports confirmed ${targetCountryData[targetCountryData.length - 1 - averageDaysToDeathAfterInfection][fields.cases]} cases. (This is a large difference but remember that many of the actual cases we calculated would not have had symptoms yet, so a significant level of under-reporting at this point is to be expected).

If we calculate forward with a growth rate of after that we arrive at the following values for today:

Estimated actual case count today: ${(Math.round(targetCountryData[targetCountryData.length - 1][fields.projected], 0)).toLocaleString()}

Confirmed cases today: ${targetCountryData[targetCountryData.length - 1][fields["total-cases"]].toLocaleString()}

This means that the confirmed cases are ${(targetCountryData[targetCountryData.length - 1][fields.cases] / targetCountryData[targetCountryData.length - 1][fields.projected] * 100).toFixed(1)} % of what we estimate to be the true count of infected people today.

From todays estimated actual case count of ${(Math.round(targetCountryData[targetCountryData.length - 1][fields.projected], 0)).toLocaleString()}, with an infection fatality rate of ${infectedFatalityRate}% we thus expect that ${averageDaysToDeathAfterInfection} days in the future, i.e. on ${latestDate.clone().add(averageDaysToDeathAfterInfection, "days").format("MMMM D")} there will be around ${(Math.round(targetCountryData[targetCountryData.length - 1][fields.projected] * (infectedFatalityRate / 100), 0)).toLocaleString()} total deaths `