2b:null 2c:["$","title",null,{"children":"Untitled | Yuqi Liao | Observable"}] 31:T422,By taking the [ADB Data Visualization Challenge](https://challenges.adb.org/en/challenges/dataviz4climate/) on visualizing climate change & resilience, we want to leverage the Observable platform as a powerful tool to **bridge the gap between comprehensive climate-related research reports and intuitive public communication products**. This Observable project is based on a series of reports from international organizations that adopt in-depth and innovative economic models to estimate the climate impact on the agricultural sector in the Southeast Asia region. Through Observable, we want to generate intuitive and interactive visualizations that **support the delivery of critical messages and increase the visibility** of the importance of this research topic in order to raise awareness of building a resilient future for Southeast Asia. ** In this visualized story, we briefly address**: - *What's the general pattern of climate impact on Vietnam?* - *What can be done to counter these impacts?* - *What lessons can be drawn at the regional level?* 32:Ta3c,**A vulnerable agricultural Sector** [El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/) events have essential impacts on Vietnam's climate, agriculture, economy, and society. Historical data show that the two phases of ENSO, El Niño and La Niña, tend to depress and increase average rainfall.

What's ENSO?

${md` **“El Niño and the Southern Oscillation”** El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO is a periodic fluctuation (i.e., every 2–7 years) in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The presence of an El Niño, or its opposite – La Niña – sufficiently modifies the general flow of the atmosphere to affect normal weather conditions in many parts of the world. `}

The country is highly exposed to ENSO-related climate shocks that negatively affect agricultural production. The irregular rainfall and temperature that come with El Niño events typically result in negative impacts on crop yield and livestock production in different sub-regions, with server economy-wide ramifications.

South-East Asia and India struck by the worst drought in 2016

${md` **“One of their worst heat waves in history”** With the heat wave and drought brought by El Niña in 2016, South-East Asia and India suffered one of their worst heat waves in history. About 330 million people, equivalent to about a quarter of the country's population, were affected by drought. This is the longest El Niño (18 months) in the region. Rainfall and river flows were only 50 to 70% of the average. In some areas, rainfall was reduced to only 20% of the average. `}

**Rainfall uncertainty during El Niño** In this section, we explore the uncertainty brought by El Niño events to Vietnam's rainfall and rice production through interactive visualizations. In Figure 1, based on rainfall difference data from 1980 to 2015 in Vietnam, it is shown that El Niño events have different implications at the sub-region level. On average, El Niño depresses rainfall in all of Vietnam's sub-regions from 2% in the South to 30% in the North. 33:T451,//code for the dot map plot - figure 1 dotPlt = addTooltips( Plot.plot({ center:true, width: width*0.29, height:550, marginTop:50, x: { ticks: 0, label: "" }, y: { ticks: 0, label: "" }, color: { legend: false, //set it to false and create a stand-alone legend label: "Average rainfall changes(%)", //scheme: "blues", range: ["#cbc9e2", "#54278f"], reverse: true, // sort: true, // domain: ["North", "Center", "South"] //set the order }, marks: [ Plot.dot(vietnamDotMap, {x: "X", y: "Y", fill: "RainfallDiffFromNetural", r: "CropValue", title: (d) => `${d.Subregion}\n \n Average rainfall changes in Oct–Jun\n during El Niño phases: \n${d.RainfallDiffFromNetural}% \n\n Crop area (thousand hectares): \n${(d.CropValue/1000)}` } )] }), //set tooltip styles { fill: "darkGray", opacity: 0.5} )34:T534,

Figure 1. Average Rainfall Changes During El Niño Phases in 1980–2015 Between October and June across Crop Areas in Vietnam

${dotPltLegend1} ${dotPltLegend2}

${dotPlt}

Figure 1. Average Rainfall Changes During El Niño Phases in 1980–2015 Between October and June across Crop Areas in Vietnam

35:Td51,//code for the line plot - figure 2 linePlt = Plot.plot({ width: 1100, marginRight: 80, // comment out the color specification for now, as I decided to draw each line individually // color: { // range: ["#4e79a7", "#f28e2b", "#e15759", "#76b7b2"] //using #1-4 of the Tableau10 color scheme to show that the regions here are different than the North/Center/South definition in an earlier chart //https://observablehq.com/@hamzaamjad/color-palettes // }, x: { tickFormat: d3.format("d"), domain: [1995, 2016], ticks: 22, label: "" }, y: { domain: [0,8], grid: true, label: "Rice yields (tons/hectare)", labelOffset: 16 }, marks: [ Plot.areaY(vietnamENSOData, {x: "Year", y: vietnamENSODataEdited, fill: "lightGray"}), //vietnam Plot.line(vietnamLineData.filter(d => d.Category === "Vietnam" ), {x: "Year", y: "Value", stroke: "#76b7b2", z: "Category", strokeWidth: 3, curve: "linear", title: "Category"}), Plot.text(["Vietnam"], { frameAnchor: "right", dx: -167, dy: -95, fill: "#76b7b2", fontSize: 12, fontWeight: "bold", lineAnchor: "bottom", text: (d) => d }), //Central Highland Plot.line(vietnamLineData.filter(d => regionNames.includes("Central Highland")? d.Category === "Central Highland" : ""), {x: "Year", y: "Value", stroke: "#4e79a7", z: "Category", strokeWidth: 3, curve: "linear",title: "Category"}), Plot.text(regionNames.includes("Central Highland")? ["Central Highland"] : [""], { frameAnchor: "right", dx: -155, dy: -30, fill: "#4e79a7", fontSize: 12, fontWeight: "bold", lineAnchor: "bottom", text: (d) => d }), //Mekong River Delta Plot.line(vietnamLineData.filter(d => regionNames.includes("Mekong River Delta")? d.Category === "Mekong River Delta" : ""), {x: "Year", y: "Value", stroke: "#f28e2b", z: "Category", strokeWidth: 3, curve: "linear",title: "Category"}), Plot.text(regionNames.includes("Mekong River Delta")? ["Mekong River Delta"] : [""], { frameAnchor: "right", dx: -70, dy: -150, fill: "#f28e2b", fontSize: 12, fontWeight: "bold", lineAnchor: "bottom", text: (d) => d }), //South Central Coast Plot.line(vietnamLineData.filter(d => regionNames.includes("South Central Coast")? d.Category === "South Central Coast" : ""), {x: "Year", y: "Value", stroke: "#e15759", z: "Category", strokeWidth: 3, curve: "linear",title: "Category"}), Plot.text(regionNames.includes("South Central Coast")? ["South Central Coast"] : [""], { frameAnchor: "right", dx: -677, dy: 0, fill: "#e15759", fontSize: 12, fontWeight: "bold", lineAnchor: "bottom", text: (d) => d }), // Plot.text(vietnamLineData, Plot.selectLast({x: "Year", y: "Value", z: "Category", // text: "Category", textAnchor: "start", // dx: 10})), //Plot.area(vietnamLineData, {x1: "Year", y1: 2, y2: 8, stroke: "Category"}) ] }) 36:T435,

El Niño events are highly correlated with depressed rice yields during the winter.

${linePlt} El Niño event

Figure 2. Winter–Spring Rice Yields in Regions of Vietnam Most Vulnerable to El Niño, 1995–2016

37:T78b,

${seed}

Drought-tolerant seed varieties

E.g., providing farmers with more drought-resistant maize, rice, and vegetable varieties

${irrigation}

Additional irrigation

E.g., increasing the amount of cultivated land that uses irrigation infrastructure

${exportBan}

Rice export restrictions

E.g., introducing a partial ban on rice exports implemented over the course of a year

${warehouse}

Grain storage and distribution

E.g., supplying 1 million tons of rice from public and private stocks

${socialTransfer}

Social transfers

E.g., providing short-term cash transfers to poorer households equal to about US $20 per person over a given year

38:T68d,//code for the bar plot - figure 3 barPlt = addTooltips( Plot.plot({ width: 900, marginRight: 120, marginLeft: 70, color: { range: ["#b07aa1", "#ff9da7"], legend: false }, //using #8-9 of the Tableau10 color scheme}, x: { axis: "", //drop axis & tick, use legend instead //tickRotate:-30, label: "" }, y: { domain: [0, 3], label: "Percentage point changes in poverty headcount rates", labelAnchor: "center", }, facet: { data: vietnamPolicyIntervention, x: "DemographicGroup", padding: 100, label: "", axis: "top" }, marks: [ Plot.barY(vietnamPolicyIntervention.filter(d => d.InterventionMethod === policyIntervention), {x: "InterventionYesNo", y: "Value", fill: "InterventionYesNo", facet: true, //very important! title: (d) => `${d.Value} \nPercentage point changes \nin poverty headcount rates` }), Plot.ruleY([0]), Plot.frame({stroke: "#ABB0B8"}) ] }), //set tooltip styles { fill: "darkGray", opacity: 0.5} )39:T5cf,

Providing social transfers are most effective in alleviating poverty increase
Compare the poverty indicator between no policy change (left) and policy intervention scenarios (right)

${viewof policyIntervention} ${barPlt} No policy change With policy change

Figure 3. Change in Poverty Headcount Rates During Strong El Niño Events and Intervention Scenarios
by Location and Gender of the Household Head

3a:T61f,## Source - Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Rosegrant, Mark; Thurlow, James; Sebastian, Leocardio. 2019. *Striking a Balance : Managing El Niño and La Niña in Vietnam’s Agriculture*. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31524 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. - Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Rosegrant, Mark; Thurlow, James; Vasileiou, Ioannis. 2019. *Striking a Balance : Managing El Niño and La Niña in Myanmar’s Agriculture*. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31523 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. - Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Rosegrant, Mark; Valmonte-Santos, Rowena; Ashwill, Maximillian. 2019. *Striking a Balance : Managing El Niño and La Niña in Philippines’ Agriculture*. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31521 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. - Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Rosegrant, Mark; Koo, Jawoo; Robertson, Ricky. 2019. *Striking a Balance : Managing El Niño and La Niña in Lao PDR’s Agriculture*. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31520 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. - Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Koo, Jawoo; Vasileiou, Ioannis; Pradesha, Angga. 2019. *Striking a Balance : Managing El Niño and La Niña in Cambodia’s Agriculture*. 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1 ? d/1000 + \" thousand hectares of crop area\" : d/1000)\n .tickSize(tickSize); // defaults to 5","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1616,"value":"tickSize = 15","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1606,"value":"dotPltLegend2 = {\n const svg = d3.select(DOM.svg())\n .attr(\"height\", 30)\n .attr(\"width\", 200 + tickSize)\n \n // Call it on a g element\n svg.append(\"g\")\n .call(legend);\n \n return svg.node();\n}","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":508,"value":"$34","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1562,"value":" **How does rainfall uncertainty affect rice production?**\n\nIn Figure 2, we visualize the rice yields across years in three regions of Vietnam that are most vulnerable to El Niño: the South Central Coast, the Central Highlands, and the Mekong River Delta. By marking the occurrence of El Niño events as gray bars in the background, we can observe that El Niño typically, but not always, corresponds to depressed rice yields during the winter. Crop production losses mean higher food prices, lower real consumption for households, and **rising poverty**.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1792,"value":"import {addAnimation} from \"@mkfreeman/plot-animation\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1840,"value":"regionNames.push(\"Vietnam\")","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":90,"value":"$35","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1814,"value":"viewof regionNames = Inputs.checkbox([\"South Central Coast\", \"Central Highland\", \"Mekong River Delta\"], {label: \"Vietnam regions most vulnerable to El Niño\"})","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":875,"value":"$36","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":320,"value":"---\n## What can be done?\n\n**Farmers, Market, and Government**\n\nDespite the negative results of the El Niño shocks illustrated above, measures such as those listed below can be taken to reduce El Niño-related losses and improve Vietnam’s preparedness and resiliency. \n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1939,"value":"$37","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2030,"value":"- Farmers can utilize **drought-tolerant seed varieties** at the farm level and adjust crop management, for example, by adding **additional crop irrigation**.\n- Market-wise, policy interventions can be adopted to address social and economic issues. In Vietnam, **rice export restrictions** or **grain storage and distributions** can alleviate rising food prices.\n- Moreover, the government could use **social transfers** to target poor households to reduce the burden on household consumption.\n\nIn Figure 3, we synthesize model estimate results from the literature to showcase what the different interventions could do to attenuate the adverse impacts of El Niño events on poverty.","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1960,"value":"exportBan = FileAttachment(\"export-ban.png\").image({ width: 80})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1961,"value":"irrigation = FileAttachment(\"irrigation.png\").image({ width: 80})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1962,"value":"seed = FileAttachment(\"seed.png\").image({ width: 80})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1963,"value":"socialTransfer = FileAttachment(\"social-transfer.png\").image({ width: 80})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1964,"value":"warehouse = FileAttachment(\"warehouse.png\").image({ width: 80})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1006,"value":"$38","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1060,"value":"$39","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":322,"value":"---\n## And it's Not Just Vietnam...\n\nEl Niño events are regional by nature. Besides Vietnam, other countries in the Southeast Asia region also suffer from El Niño events on social and economic dimensions. Similar simulations have been conducted in the series reports for the other four Southeast Asia countries: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and the Philippines. \n\nIntroducing all potential interventions elaborated above concurrently is by far the most effective at minimizing GDP losses during El Niño, even leading to GDP gains during EL Niño in Myanmar. \n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2155,"value":"import {legend as verticalLegend} from \"@slowkow/vertical-color-legend\"","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2157,"value":"vLegend = verticalLegend({\n color: d3.scaleSequential([-1.6, 0.1], \n [\"#832804\",\"#fee6ce\"]),\n \n \n //title: \"GDP Changes (%)\",\n tickFormat: \"\",\n ticks: 5,\n})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2310,"value":"viewof table1 = Inputs.table(regionalData)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2314,"value":"regionalData = FileAttachment(\"figure 4v4 - policy scenarios in region@1.csv\").csv({typed: true})","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2356,"value":"function wrap(text, width) {\n text.each(function() {\n var text = d3.select(this),\n words = text.text().split(/\\s+/).reverse(),\n word,\n line = [],\n lineNumber = 0,\n lineHeight = 1.1, // ems\n y = text.attr(\"y\"),\n dy = parseFloat(text.attr(\"dy\")),\n tspan = text.text(null).append(\"tspan\").attr(\"x\", 0).attr(\"y\", y).attr(\"dy\", dy + \"em\");\n while (word = words.pop()) {\n line.push(word);\n tspan.text(line.join(\" \"));\n if (tspan.node().getComputedTextLength() > width) {\n line.pop();\n tspan.text(line.join(\" \"));\n line = [word];\n tspan = text.append(\"tspan\").attr(\"x\", 0).attr(\"y\", y).attr(\"dy\", ++lineNumber * lineHeight + dy + \"em\").text(word);\n }\n }\n });\n}\n","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2303,"value":"addTooltips(\n Plot.plot({\n x: {\n domain: [\"Without interventions\", \"All combined\"],\n lineWidth: 5\n },\n facet: {\n data: regionalData,\n x: \"Country\",\n label: \"\",\n },\n marks: [\n Plot.frame(),\n Plot.arrow(regionalData, {\n x1: \"Policy1\",\n y1: \"y1\",\n x2: \"Policy2\",\n y2: \"y2\",\n bend: false,\n title: (d) => `from ${d.y1} to ${d.y2} \\nGDP Percentage changes \\nbefore and after policy interventions`\n })\n ]\n})\n)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1166,"value":"\n \n \n \n \n

\n Figure 4. GDP Changes During Strong El Niño Events with Intervention Scenarios in Five Countries\n

\n\n

\n ${heatmapPlt1}\n

\n \n

\n ${heatmapPlt2}\n

\n\n

\n ${vLegend}\n

\n \n

\n\n\n

\n Figure 4. GDP Changes During Strong El Niño Events with Intervention Scenarios in Five Countries\n

\n \n

\n \n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2115,"value":"viewof table = Inputs.table(regionalPolicy)","pinned":true,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":2111,"value":"html` ","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"html","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"},{"id":345,"value":"import {Plot, addTooltips} from \"@mkfreeman/plot-tooltip\"","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"ojs","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"$undefined","database":"$undefined"},{"id":1906,"value":"## credit\nnoun project\n- networking by Daouna Jeong from Noun Project\n- warehouse by Ganjar Adicipta from Noun Project\n- Wheat by ToZIcon from Noun Project\n- irrigation by Anwar Hossain from Noun Project\n- ban shipping by Teewara soontorn from Noun Project\n- unsplash image credit\n\n","pinned":false,"hidden":false,"mode":"md","author":"$undefined","summary":"$undefined","output":"","database":"$undefined"}],"files":"$W3b","stdlib":"1","titling":"auto"}} 30:"$2f:body"